On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continued to experience pressure to break the $92,000 level, resulting in a fall of more than 26 per cent from its historic height in October. This decline triggered a discussion as to whether this was a temporary adjustment or whether it heralded the start of a new four-year cycle, which could lead to longer sales.
Since last month ' s liquidation of the $19 billion leverage position, the price of bitcoin has declined significantly, a trend exacerbated by the profit-backing of long-term holders. The current sales also coincided with a historic window in which bitcoin peaked, 400 to 600 days after the events of halving last April.
Bernstein's analyst Gautam Chugani's team wrote: “This self-fulfilling prophecy led to the sale of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025. In our view, however, the evidence below shows that this is only a short-term consolidation to a new local low point, rather than a historical return of 60-70 per cent seen in previous cycles.”
Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 per token on 6 October. Analysts also noted that the increased use of ETFs by institutional investors reflected the “higher quality and continued ownership” of Bitcoin.
The Government ' s support for the fight against Bitcoin and the Clarity Bill legislation in Congress were also seen as positive driving forces. “The current market environment does not seem to us to be the culmination of a cycle”, Chhugani says, “more like a structural multi-year trend involving institutions in bitcoin and encrypted capital markets, with occasional modifications”.
He added: “We are observing whether Bitcoin can reach the bottom of the approximately $80,000 immediately after the elections in Trump. We believe that the current weak market may provide an attractive entry for new investors.”
In addition, the continuous purchase of encrypted currency by MicroStrategy (MSTR) provides some support to the market. The company disclosed on Monday that it had purchased an additional 8,178 bitcoin at an average price of US$ 102,171 each, totalling US$ 835 million.