According to the external media review, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, at the time of the first interest-rate meeting, while maintaining the same interest rate, it was the policy path that really changed market expectations. Prior to the fall in interest rates and improved liquidity in the second half of 2026, the premise was now evidently shaken, with the return of encrypted assets.
The dots are turning to more attention.
The article mentions that the 17 June meeting kept the interest rate on federal funds at between 3.5 per cent and 3.75 per cent, the fourth consecutive troop-free period, the result of which was largely in line with expectations. The real cause of the market adjustment is the schematic changes in the summary of the latest economic projections: Federal Reserve officials’ judgement of the 2026 interest rate trend has shifted from a preference for a fall in interest rates in March to a preference for higher and even higher levels.
According to the text, no official expected an increase in 2026 in March, and the Committee ' s overall judgement still favoured a reduction in interest rates; after the first meeting of Warsh, 9 of the 18 officials expected at least one increase in 2026, of which 6 were expected to increase twice, and only 1 was still expected to decrease. The median interest rate forecast at the end of 2026 also rose from 3.4 per cent in March to 3.8 per cent.
Bitcoinfall reflects expected heavy pricing
According to the article, the market's reaction to the meeting was not due to a change in the current interest rate level, but to a rewrite of the future interest rate path. For risk assets, prices tend to reflect the cost of future funds rather than only current interest rates. Previously, a part of the growth logic of the encrypted market was based on the judgement that “the monetary environment would be more relaxed later in the year”, which is now weakened and asset valuation needs to be readjusted.
It was reported that most of the major encrypted currencies dropped by between 1 and 3 per cent after the news was released, while bitcoin was close to $64,000. The article interprets this fall as “expected heavy pricing”, rather than as a direct reaction to the maintenance of interest rates per se.
Risk preference for high interest rate environment suppression
In the author ' s view, it would be difficult for the market to continue to maintain its previous pricing of the easing cycle if the Fed no longer releases a clear interest-rate reduction signal and policy statements place greater emphasis on restoring price stability. Declining forward guidance also makes it more difficult for traders to form a consistent judgement about the future path, and therefore more volatile.
According to the article, the hawk Fed suppresses the encrypted market through several channels. The first is mobility. Maintaining high interest rates or continuing upwards means that the cost of funds is higher and that the flow to highly volatile assets usually decreases. The second is the opportunity cost. If low-risk assets, such as short-term United States debt, provide higher returns and hold bitcoin that does not generate cash flows, the attractiveness will decline.
The author also mentioned that the strong United States dollar and real rates of return were generally not conducive to encrypted assets in United States dollars. At the same time, market narratives are changing. If “reducing interest” is no longer the core condition underpinning the 2026 scenario, the encryption market needs to look for new drivers.
The article concludes that the next more interesting variable is inflation data. If inflation is delayed, the Fed may have a longer time to maintain a tight position, which will continue to put pressure on the encryption market.