As the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States approaches, the market is beginning to look at whether the White House will be focusing on a good signal around July 4. According to Wall Street, citing comments from Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir, Trump ' s attention may be redirected to the domestic economy in the face of a temporary easing of the situation in Iran and a fallback in the volatility of the debt market, and an attempt to create stronger market performance before the festival.
The poll pressure pushes up expectations.
According to the article, Trump's current support rate is close to his tenure low, which increases his incentive to reinforce the narrative of “economic performance” before major political nodes. The 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States is highly symbolic and is seen as a window of time for focusing on the results of governance.
According to this judgement, the White House in the next two weeks may promote a warmer investor mood through more intensive public statements, policy implication or market-friendly statements. The logic is not derived from formal policy documents, but is based on the style in which Trump has always valued market performance and political perceptions.
After a de-escalation in Iran, back to economic issues
Tchir mentioned that Mejlis had signed a memorandum of understanding, but he described it as a short-term cut-off arrangement, the main role of which was to stabilize the oil supply and to allow the parties more time for assessment. For the market, the more immediate impact was a temporary cooling of risks in the Middle East and a reduction in energy shock concerns.
Against this background, the White House ' s follow-up agenda may be more focused on domestic issues such as growth, employment, manufacturing and capital market performance. The article also appeared in Intel, suggesting that such companies with industrial and national security attributes could continue to serve as a model for observations supported by Washington policy.
Warsh, interest rates are expected to improve after the premiere.
In addition to political factors, changes in the interest rate environment are one of the core pillars of the commentary. Academy Securities has adjusted the pre-empted interest rate position to a neutral one, as the performance of the new Fed Chairman, Warsh, at the first FOMC meeting eased concerns about a significant rise in long-term interest rates.
According to Tchir, Warsh ' s desire to improve the basis for policy judgement was demonstrated by, on the one hand, maintaining a hawk stance on inflation and stabilizing the rate of return at the long end, and, on the other hand, by proposing the establishment of working groups, particularly to examine sources of economic data. As a result of this, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of the United States Treasury debt, has fallen back to pre-heating levels in Iran.
Taken as a whole, it is the judgement that geo-risk phase cooling, debt-market fluctuations, together with Trump ' s strong political motivation before major commemorative days, may collectively underpin short-term market sentiment.