According to the external review, the XRP is still in the next stage of the round, with short-line rebounds not excluding further weakness, and testing the area below $1 at the end of June to early July. The core judgement of the article is derived from the wave theory, while embedding concerns that the Yen arbitrage transaction may again disturb the risk asset.

Short-line focus: $1.20 to $1.22

According to the analytical framework quoted in the text, XRP had previously been lagging behind from $1.29 and was undergoing a process of rehabilitation. The current rebound is seen as close to US$ 1.20 to US$ 1.22, a position that, if blocked, could be reoriented.

According to the article, if the price breaks down by US$ 1.30, the existing irradiated wave structure will be broken and the market will need to reassess the subsequent trends. If we are to completely deny the target of a downtrend of $0.87, XRP will have to rise and stand steady at $ 1.65.

It's off-air.

It divides the cycle into five steps:

  • The first segment fell from $1.29 to $1.12.
  • Current rebound is considered the second recovery
  • Follow-up down to target approximately $ 0.94 to $ 0.87

According to this judgement, the third paragraph is usually the most urgent of the drops, with the possibility of lowering the price to the vicinity of 0.94 dollars, followed by a brief rebound, before completing the last one. The article thus places a potentially low window of time between the end of June and the beginning of July.

Japanese yen arbitrage transactions are considered an additional risk

In addition to the technical aspects, the article mentions the potential for new fluctuations in the Japanese yen arbitrage. Japan, for its part, seems to have intervened in the market this week, and the yen has grown rapidly. The comment was made that, if arbitrage silos similar to the one of August 2024 were to re-emerge, the risk assets could be subject to centralization.

For example, XRP had fallen by about 35 per cent in the week. When applied to the near-term price range by a similar drop, the target is roughly between $0.84 and $0.90, which is closer to the technology evolution described above.

RWA progress provides medium- and long-term support for narrative

At the same time, however, the article states that the basic narrative of the XRP has not changed at the same time. XRP Ledger has been at the top of the public chain for the past 90 days in terms of real-world asset monetization inflows, attracting about $1.9 billion, and then coming closer to $3 billion.

The article also mentions that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is working with OKX to advance the stock monetization infrastructure in the chain. Against this background, the XRP Ledger is considered to be one of the links that could benefit from the recent dynamism in the RWA direction.

On a short-line basis, the three key values given in the text are US$ 1.22, US$ 1.30 and US$ 0.87, corresponding to the backlash, structural failure and potential stages, respectively.