Morgan Chase raised the target index of 500 by the end of 2026 from 7,600 points to 7800 points, about 6 per cent above the closing level of the index of approximately 7365.46 points in recent days. At the same time, the bank is expected to raise the revenue per share of the 2026 standard 500 to $350 and expects to reach $390 in 2027.
AI Expenditure boosts profit expectations
According to JP Morgan, one of the main factors driving the target up is the continued expansion of AI infrastructure inputs by large technology companies. According to the Bank, the range of upswings expected to be made in the near future by enterprises has been large enough to support higher index valuations.
The data show that in the first quarter of 2026 there was an increase of 28.9 per cent in profits for the 500 component units. At the same time, the capital expenditure of super-large cloud manufacturers associated with AI almost doubled.
Morgan Chase expects that market-led growth will continue to be concentrated in high-quality growth units and in companies that directly benefit from AI investments. The bank also mentioned that credit card consumption data reflected the resilience of household spending in the United States, but corporate management statements indicated that consumers were becoming more price-oriented.
It's expected to rise before the second quarter.
Despite the upwards, Morgan Chase cautioned that the follow-up movement of the United States shares might not be stable. According to the bank, some of the second tier AI concept units have become overheated, valuation and warehouse positions are rising faster than basic, and the risk of rapid market reversals is increasing.
It also indicated that the strong performance of the two consecutive quarters had significantly raised the market ' s expectations for the second quarter. This means that enterprises are continuing to exceed expectations in terms of profitability and capital expenditure, and the difficulty is increasing.
Other risks listed by Chase Morgan include increased stock issuance, lower inflation than expected, tariff pressures and the possible retrenchment of monetary policy. The bank expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in 2026 and to move towards interest rate hikes in 2027.
Projected simultaneous warming of the market
As Wall Street agencies continue to move up their targets, the projected trade around the 500 index points is also warming. On Polymarket, the probability of a scale of 500 to 7800 points reached 59% at one time.
At the same time, Cboe of the Chicago Futures Exchange launched the Cboe Predicts product, offering a dual option contract linked to Mini-S&P 500 Index. Dealers may engage in “yes or no” transactions around whether the index is higher or lower than a given point, and are currently involved through surplus securities, followed by plans to access credit.
In addition to Morgan Chase, Barclays and Stifel have also increased the target at the end of 2026 to 7800 points, while the BCA Research has increased the target from 7700 points to 8100 points.