The price of gold continues to weaken, with the spot gold being reported at approximately $4025 per ounce on Friday, falling during the year, about 30 per cent above the high point of the plate created in January. The fall is changing the market ' s judgement of gold, and several previously over-represented international banks have been lowering their price expectations.

After two years of rising, it's clearly falling back.

Prior to the current round, gold had just experienced a rare increase. From about US$ 2,000 per ounce at the beginning of 2024, cash money rose to nearly US$ 5600 in January this year, a cumulative increase of more than double. Now that the price is back in the vicinity of $4000, it means a clear cooling of the strong behavior previously driven by evasive sentiment, central bank buys and interest rate reductions.

United States dollars and interest rates are expected to be major pressures

The core factor in the recent suppression of gold has come from the strengthening of the United States dollar and anticipated changes in United States interest rates. Markets are increasingly betting, and the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, not even excluding further interest rate hikes. For gold that does not generate interest income, this reduces its relative attractiveness.

According to ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey, while the geo-situation situation remains uncertain and central bank purchases have not completely disappeared, market concerns have shifted from the need to avoid risk to the effects of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. The higher rate of return on bonds also makes the returns more attractive than gold.

Multi-agency synchronized downwards

  • ING is expected to lower the average gold price in the third quarter of 2026 to $4300
  • ING Lower projected to $4,600 for the fourth quarter
  • The corresponding projections were $4850 and $5,000, respectively.

Deutsche Bank also made a downward revision this week. The bank reduced the third quarter forecast by 20 per cent to $4,300 and the fourth quarter forecast by 17 per cent to $4,800. Analyst Michael Hsueh pointed out that there was no apparent demand for investment that could have provided support for the time being, that there was a weakening demand for gold ETF and a slowdown in buys from China and India.

Goldman Sachs also adjusted his judgment last week. The bank reduced the end-of-year target by $500 to $4900, after relinquishing the Fed ' s interest rate reduction expected during the year. While maintaining the target of $600,000 for the next 12 months, the Bank of the United States recognizes that this level does not appear to be easy to achieve in the short term.

Market sentiment cooled fast.

The successive downward projections by many institutions reflect a rapid shift in the mood in the gold market. A few months ago, the market was also discussing the opportunity for gold prices to rise to $600,000, or even a more radical high valuation. Today, the pressure on gold in the short term has significantly increased as the dollar has grown stronger, bond yields have risen and investment needs have weakened.