Cash gold was collected on 25 June at $3978.60 per ounce for the first time since November 2025. According to the external press review, the fall was not a short-term panic, but a re-pricing of gold by the market, following a simultaneous change in interest rate expectations, the movement of the United States dollar and geo-situation.

Nearly 30% in five months.

From the high of approximately $5,595 at the end of January, the gold price fell around 28.9 per cent within less than five months. According to the article, this drop was close to the full-year level of gold in 2013, but the downwards of the round were not accompanied by a concentration of sales, but rather by a continued rollback.

It was noted that the expectation that the Federal Reserve would enter the interest-rate reduction cycle in 2026, following a previous bet on the market, had led to a rapid rise in gold. With the shift in policy expected in the near future, the pre-existing increase in gold narratives began to loosen.

High interest rates and a strong dollar to suppress gold prices

According to the article, the primary pressure of the current round of adjustments came from the Fed ' s position-turner. The market ' s judgement about the path of subsequent interest rates has changed markedly, with the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets rising and the gold appeal being suppressed.

At the same time, the United States dollar index rose to more than a year's high, weakening the demand for gold. Gold denominated in United States dollars has become more expensive in the eyes of other currency holders, and traditional in-kind consumer markets, such as India and Turkey, have been under increased price pressure.

The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has also weakened the risk buy-in. The article mentioned that, as the US-Iraq peace framework advanced and shipping resumed in the Straits of Hormuz, the geo-risk premium that had previously supported the price of gold was returning, and oil prices had fallen to a low level for months.

The agency's downgraded the target price and the financial profile was divided.

Wall Street agencies have recently moved down the target price of gold. Goldman Sachs reduced the target price at the end of 2026 from $5,400 to $4900 and Deutsche Bank from $600 to $4,800. There were also institutions that maintained relative optimism, but market differences were expected to widen markedly.

The article also mentioned that, on the technical side, the gold 50-day mean line was approaching 200-day mean lines, which could further strengthen expectations of medium-term weakness if “death intersects”. With the loss of $400,000, the market has been more cautious in its judgement of the successor.

In contrast to the withdrawal of ETF investors, central banks continue to increase gold. A survey by the World Gold Association shows that most of the central banks interviewed expect that global central bank gold holdings will continue to increase over the next 12 months. It was observed that the flow of short-term transactions, which coexisted with long-term reserve requirements, was placing the gold market in a more tiered structure.

Overall, the article concluded that gold did not lose its long-term configuration value, but that the single upward logic of reliance on interest rates, weak dollars and risk avoidance had been broken. Subsequent trends will continue to depend on Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data and continued outflows of ETF funds.