Galaxy Digital projected the probability of the United States CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, down from 60 per cent to 50 per cent. According to the Agency, the greatest resistance at this time is not the content of the bill, but the limited time remaining in the Senate before the August recess and the lack of public advance signals.

The Senate window narrows.

In his research brief, Alex Thorn, research director of Galaxy, stated that the delay in seeing the consolidated Senate text and the lack of debate or voting arrangements had itself demonstrated that legislative advancement was still inadequate. Although the Senate Banking Commission and the Agriculture Commission have been harmonizing the versions, the final version has not yet been published.

Polymarket also shows that traders currently give only about 41 per cent of the probability that the bill will be signed into law in 2026, reflecting a weakening of market expectations.

  • Galaxy latest estimate: 50%
  • Prior estimate: 60 per cent
  • Polymarket Current Probability: about 41%

July voting is scheduled as key variables

The United States Senate is currently adjourned until 13 July, and the time available to deal with bills before the August recess is further reduced. According to Galaxy, the voting time in the Senate is becoming more tense not only because of the shrinking schedule, but also because other bills are competing for an agenda.

Thorn mentioned that Trump had tied support for a bipartisan housing bill to SAVE Act, and that Congress had to deal with the FISA-related legislation and the annual Defence Authorization Bill. This means that it is becoming more difficult to get a hearing time for an encrypted market structure bill.

According to Galaxy, the prospects for the bill could still improve if the Senate leadership made a commitment in July to arrange for a House vote and publish a final unified text. Thorn indicates that if such public progress occurs within the next two weeks, the agency ' s estimated probability may rise to 60 per cent or more.

Policy differences remain incomplete

In addition to procedural issues, there are still some policy disputes pending in the Bill. Galaxy mentioned that ethical provisions were still divided among parliamentarians. At the same time, law enforcement agencies have continued to call for amendments to the Developmental Protections Act.

Earlier this week, the United States Department of Justice responded to the concerns of four national law enforcement organizations. The Ministry of Justice indicated that the CLARITY bill would not weaken the ability of the prosecution to investigate crimes involving digital assets. Previously, in a joint letter dated 23 June, these organizations stated that section 604 of the Act and related exemptions could form a regulatory gap and be used by criminals.

Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously indicated that the Senate was expected to publish the final text for public review around 4 July, with a view to facilitating its deliberations later in July. If the Senate version changes the text adopted by the Chamber of Deputies, further coordination between the two houses is required before it can be sent to the President for signature.