According to an interview article published by Coinpedia, Versan Aljarrah, founder of Black Swan Capitalist, argued that the market prices of the XRP over the past few years did not reflect its actual use in the current or short term. According to him, regulatory events, the manner in which exchanges are handled and the structure of liquidity together widen the gap between open market prices and real demand.

The SEC suit was considered a turning point.

Aljarrah sees the 2020 US Securities and Exchange Commission (US SEC) suit against Ripple as a key node. In his view, the lawsuit not only brought legal pressure, but also limited some trading platforms to XRP transactions or reduced their priority in the distribution of algorithms.

He further stated that in the subsequent years, the mobility of XRP had been decentralized to different locations, and that there had been false billings and counter-tradings on some platforms. According to him, this environment makes it easier for large amounts of money to be diverted to off-site or private channels rather than to appear directly in open entry.

Disconnect between open prices and institutional flows

The core of this article is that the price discovery mechanism of the XRP has long-standing distortions. According to Aljarrah, institutional funds can be built gradually through off-site markets and private arrangements, while ordinary investors in the open market see more low-quality or interrupted trade signals.

He also stated that the current weakness of the XRP cannot be simply understood as a lack of progress. The reason for this is that the market as a whole is still constrained by global liquidity constraints, high real rates of return, and the return of cash and short-term assets, a context from which the XRP has not deviated.

It's based on these signals.

  • XRP Continuous Disk Compression for a Long Period
  • Volatility has declined and prices have narrowed.
  • Decline in the drop.
  • The supply of long-term holders continues to rise

According to Aljarrah, these combinations are closer to the bottom than to a continuous distribution. He referred to this phase as the “loading period”, i.e. the gradual absorption of long-term funds without triggering a clear market signal.

He thinks the real variable is settled in XRPL

Aljarrah does not believe that the next ETF approval or progress of proceedings will be a decisive trigger for what will break this situation. More important was whether there would be verifiable and sufficiently large settlement activities, which would be processed directly through XRP Ledger.

According to him, once real economic activity begins to enter XRPL at a higher volume, and the associated flow can no longer be dispersed or hidden by traditional infrastructure, the existing repressive framework will be rendered ineffective. Open market prices may then be closer to real demand.

However, the article also mentions that short-term risks have not disappeared. According to Aljarrah, the XRP may still stay longer in the zone, or even continue to look down until the price belt breaks the recent highs. Coinpedia states that XRP reported USD 1.04 at the time of the deadline.