Galaxy Digital reduced the probability of the United States CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%. According to the Agency, the problem is not primarily with the content of the bill, but with the time available to the United States Senate to move it forward before the August recess.
Keep going back through probability.
Alex Thorn, Director of Galaxy Research, stated that the Agency had previously given 75 per cent chance of passing in May, which fell to 60 per cent on 9 June and is now further down to 50 per cent. The market is projected to be more cautiously priced, with a current corresponding probability of about 49 per cent, a marked fall from the high of about 74 per cent a month ago.
The Senate agenda is squeezing.
According to Thorn, the biggest obstacle at the moment is that the Senate has not yet developed a unified text and has no clear voting calendar. The window for the bill is shrinking as the five-week recess in August draws closer.
He mentioned that the Senate was currently dealing with such issues as the housing bill, SAVE Act relating to the certificate of citizenship, and surveillance and defence, which were competing for limited voting time. Trump had also previously indicated that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress had passed SAVE Act, which further exacerbated the agenda.
Democrats still have hard votes.
The purpose of the CLARITY Act is to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for United States digital assets and to delineate regulatory responsibilities between the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill was passed in the House of Representatives in July 2025 and in May this year 15 to 9 passed the Senate Banking Commission.
However, the support base remains fragile. The report mentions that only two Democrats supported the vote in the Commission, and that there is still a gap between the 60-vote threshold normally required for a full Senate vote. The Democrats, represented by Elizabeth Warren, wanted to join the ethics clause for the Trump encryption operation, while the banking sector and law enforcement groups contested the stabilization of currency gains and illicit financing loopholes.
Additional information:HashKey Senior Researcher Tim Sun said to Decrypt that this is more like a time delay than a denial of the content of the bill itself. If the final text is published in July and the Senate leadership has made clear arrangements, the probability of passing the bill may still rise. Senator Cynthia Lummis also indicated last week that the final text might appear around July 4.