On 30 June, ETH fluctuated around $1580 and continued to remain between $1,500 and $1600 recently tested over time. Over the past week, ETH has continued to decline by more than 6 per cent, and the market has been depressed, with several rebounds blocked near $1600.

The moon line is still weak.

In a longer cycle, the ETH movement has yet to emerge from vulnerability. Market traders mentioned that in the past 10 months, 8 of the 10 moon lines had fallen, indicating that the down-line structure had not been reversed in the medium term.

Another observation that has been repeatedly mentioned is that ETH has tried several times to recover its previous support positions but has not been able to stand. The market is now more concerned about whether the $1750 line can be broken again. If the $1,500 area cannot be secured, traders may continue to observe lower levels of support; if they return to above $1700 to $1,800, the price base will be stabilized.

The leverage position is clearly falling.

Chain-based and exchange-based derivatives data indicate that ETH leverage trade congestion has decreased significantly compared to earlier in the year.

  • ETH unsettled contract down to about $1.95 billion for Binance
  • ETH unsettled contract down to approximately $1.84 billion by Gate.io
  • Total of the two platforms is approximately $3.79 billion

According to the analysts, the decline in the unsettled contract meant a reduction in the high-leverage position, which helped to reduce the risk of pressure from the silo. In particular, the current data for Gate.io is about 31 per cent lower than in April 2025 when ETH was also located near $1570.

However, leveraging does not in itself amount to a new buyout. It can only suggest that the market structure is cleaner than before, but that, in the absence of an off-the-shelf financial relay, prices may still sustain a vulnerable shock.

Flow of spot purchase boards with ETF

Another set of data shows a relative increase in the activity of ETH spot transactions. According to analysts, this may mean that some large households and medium- and long-term funds are being absorbed through spot markets rather than continuing to pursue short-line leverage.

This structure is generally more stable than a mere leverage-driven rebound, as it relies less on forced silos. But at the same time, U.S. F.E.E.F. continues to flow.

As of the week of June 26th, the U.S. ETF net outflow of $273 million was seven consecutive weeks of withdrawal. Of which, Belet Etha is out of $236 million. ETF foreclosure may result in a corresponding spot-selling pressure, which is also considered to be one of the reasons why ETH has repeatedly been restricted by a rebound in the vicinity of $1600.

Technical indicators show a slowdown

From short-line indicators, there are some signs of stability in ETH, but it is not yet sufficient to confirm a reversal of the trend. The relative strength and weakness index RSI is about 35, which is still significantly below the neutral level of 50, indicating that kinetic energy remains weak.

The MCD is slightly better than before, showing a decrease in empty kinetic energy, but the whole remains below the zero axis. In other words, while market pressure has eased, the purchasing power has not been sufficient to boost the trend.

Currently, the $1,500 area remains the key support belt for ETH. The market's expectation of a phased rehabilitation could only be further enhanced if the subsequent turnover rebounded and repositioned between $1700 and $1800.