On 30 June, Iran refused to meet with the representative of the United States in Doha, de-escalating external expectations of a rapid de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East, which led to high international oil prices. The Prime Minister of Qatar was in contact with the United States in Doha on the same day, while the Iranian side indicated that demining in the Strait of Hormuz had been included in the June memorandum without external involvement.
The ceasefire is expected to cool down.
It was reported that representatives of the United States side, including Jared Kouchner and Steve Witkov, were to be contacted by Iran on this occasion. Instead of sending members to the meeting, Iran continues to demand that progress be seen in the implementation of the memorandum of 17 June.
Alex Vatanka, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, stated that the Iranian Foreign Minister, Aragzi, and the Speaker of Parliament, Ghalibaf, were concerned that going to Doha at this time could trigger domestic political pressure. Iran is now more concerned about whether the United States will first honour its commitments.
Galibaf stated that Tehran would not discuss a final agreement until the United States fulfilled all the terms of the memorandum. The conditions put forward by the Iraqi side included the unfreezing of Iranian assets and an end to the escalation in the direction of Lebanon.
Oil prices rose to 74.75 dollars.
As a result of the stagnation in negotiations, Brent crude oil rose to $74.75 per barrel on Tuesday and fell back to $73.29 on Wednesday morning. The market is still assessing the possibility of Iran-United States follow-up.
A week ago, as the super tankers resumed transiting through the Straits of Hormuz, Brent oil prices fell briefly. Negotiations are now blocked and georisk premiums are pushed up again.
- Brent crude oil at Tuesday height: $74.75 per barrel
- Back Wednesday morning: $73.29/barrel
- Decline in United States crude oil stock last week: 6.1 million barrels
The market continues to focus on the Straits of Hormuz.
The Vice-President of the United States, J.D. Vance, stated that tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz had returned to pre-war levels, and stated that Iran was unable to charge for the transit of vessels.
The supply and demand levels are also supporting oil prices. The International Energy Agency warned in May that the supply gap in the global oil market could continue until the third quarter of 2026. At the same time, the decline of 6.1 million barrels in United States crude oil stocks last week further reinforced the trade logic of short-term supply-restriction.
Previously, Brent crude oil had accumulated a decline of about $45 between the first and second quarters, the strongest quarterly adjustment since 2008; WTI fell about $31 over the same period, the largest decline since 2020. With the gradual easing of tension in the Middle East, the two benchmark oil prices once rebounded from the increase triggered by the Iranian attack, but the current round of diplomatic obstruction allowed the market to recalculate the risk.