According to external sources, Morgan Chase ' s latest report identified Strategy ' s new and well-defined Bitcoin sales arrangement as an additional uncertainty in the encryption market. The central reason is that the company, which had been a major buyer of Bitcoin for a long time, would now be faced with both buying and selling both if it were to become a seller in a given case.
Money-selling arrangements are pointing at a two-way risk.
Strategy officially confirmed this week that Bitcoin could be sold if necessary to cover the priority dividends. At the same time, the company authorized priority stock buy-backs and stock buy-backs and set a minimum cash reserve target of 12 months ' priority dividends and interest expenditure.
According to Chase Morgan, this arrangement, while increasing the financial operating space, also allows the market to start accounting for new sources of supply. For a bitcoin market that is already heavily dependent on institutional buy-in, even a phased sale may affect liquidity, price performance and investor sentiment.
Cash buffers remain below the Bank ' s expectations
The report indicates that Strategy currently has approximately $25.5 billion in cash reserves, covering approximately 17 months of related obligations. According to Chase Morgan, this level is still low and the more appropriate coverage should be 24 to 36 months.
The bank suggested that Strategy could continue to replenish the United States dollar reserve by issuing a general equity, even if this might result in a discount on the value of the general equity relative net assets. The judgement of Chase Morgan is that investors will be more receptive to their capital structure as long as the company is able to further reduce the likelihood of selling bitcoin over the next few years.
Strategy is enough to influence the market.
To date, 847,363 BTCs are held on Strategy ' s balance sheet, one of the largest listed companies in the world. Morgan Chase estimates that the amount of bitcoin purchased by the company during the year is approximately $13.7 billion, or about 70 per cent of the total net inflows of digital assets measured by it. In total terms, the bitcoin held by Strategy represents about 4 per cent of the total supply.
In this volume, the market is particularly sensitive to changes in its role. According to Chase Morgan, if a large buyer that had been able to absorb bitcoin on a continuous basis also started to sell assets in part-time, fluctuations could be magnified, which in turn would raise the cost of Strategy continuing to buy the currency in the future through equity or debt financing.
Market concerns are exacerbated by the weakness of ETF funds
The report also mentions that the demand for real bitcoin ETF in the United States, which has been the main source of institutional purchases since 2024, has significantly cooled in recent months. In June, such funds recorded a record net outflow of $4 billion; after 13 consecutive transactions were redeemed, the cumulative flow of funds during the year was once negative.
According to Chase Morgan, Bitcoin was under pressure in late May and early June, partly because Strategy disclosed in a regulatory document submitted on 1 June that it had sold 32 BTCs from 26 to 31 May to pay dividends. This move, combined with an expected revaluation of the Federal Reserve rate, further suppresses the performance of bitcoin and gold.
The second half depends on two things.
According to the article, the current state of weakness does not necessarily last, but at least two conditions are required for the market to be clearly repaired in the second half of the year: Strategy to continue to expand its cash reserves and reduce future currency sales expectations; and the United States Congress to move forward with pending encrypted market structure legislation.
The core judgement of Morgan Chase is that if one of the largest corporate buyers in the market is no longer considered a potential seller, the additional disturbance facing the Bitcoin market will be reduced.