Foreign media quoted Santiment data from the chain analysis platform that XRP holders were going through the worst average return for almost 12 years. At the same time, the 30th and 365th MVRVs fell into a deep negative range, showing that both short-line and long-line holders were in a large deficit.

Two MVRVs synchronized to low

Reports indicate that the 30 days of XRP MVRV have dropped to -45% and 365 days MVRV to -47%. This indicator is used to compare the current market value with the average cost of holding by investors, and the lower the value, the greater the overall market.

According to Santiago, the special feature of this situation is that short-term and long-term MVRV simultaneously touch extreme lows. This reflects the concentration of market pessimism, the strong pressure on the holders and the increased fatigue after the sale.

Extreme pessimism happens before the rebound.

According to the article, similar extreme loss zones have tended to be at the bottom of the market stage in the past. Prices may rebound faster when sales pressure is gradually reduced and vulnerable holders withdraw.

However, the report also mentions that this does not mean that the downside risk is over. If the overall encryption market continues to weaken, XRP may still be under pressure. The current inter-temporal risk-benefit structure has changed only compared to the large-scale surplus phase.

Prices and exchange flows to concern

As of the submission, CoinCodex data showed that XRP reported $1.10. According to the article, this area is close to what many analysts claim to be historical oversold.

In addition to the valuation indicators, the report mentions two signals of market interest: first, prices are still operating in triangulation, but the low points continue to rise; and second, hundreds of millions of XRPs have been flowing out of major encrypted exchanges in recent weeks. The latter are usually considered to be holders who transfer tokens to private wallets with a reduced willingness to sell on a short-term basis.

Overall, the core judgement of this review article is that XRP is now in a more extreme position of emotional and chain valuation. Whether or not there has been a rebound continues to depend on whether the subsequent purchase will keep pace and whether the overall market environment has improved.