Foreign media reports, the encryption analyst VirtualBacon, argue that it is worth judging whether Solana is now in a position to be configured, not to look at the backlash of SOL itself, but at the market position of Bitcoin. His core view was that, if bitcoin had not yet entered a sufficiently low-cost zone, the risk-returns associated with high-volatilization currency would not be cost-effective.

Let's see where the bitcoin is.

According to the article, VirtualBacon places two key reference points for Bitcoin near approximately $62,000 and $53,000, corresponding to 200 weekly averages and prices, respectively. In his view, better medium- and long-term entry windows would be possible if bitcoin continued to fall back on these positions.

According to him, there was no contingency to buy Solana or some other mountain currency until the Bitcoin valuation had been significantly reduced. In other words, the SOL configuration point depends first on whether the BTC completes a deeper round of adjustments.

SOL usually retreats more than BTC.

VirtualBacon further measures risk using the relative performance of SOL/BTC. He mentioned that in September 2025, during that round, Bitcoin withdrew about 54 per cent from its height, while Solana withdrew about 76 per cent, indicating that SOL fell about 1.4 times more than the BTC.

  • BTC Key reference level: approximately $62,000, $53,000
  • Historical reversal comparison: BTC about 54%, SOL about 76%
  • Calculate target range: SOL or fall back to about $65

Based on this historical fluctuation, he assumed that if Bitcoin had returned to about $5.35 million, SOL could have gone down from the current region to about $65. In this logic, it was in the vicinity of US$ 65 that it was closer to the reasonable price range that he accepted.

It's 80 bucks above.

In the case of SOL, which has recently risen to 82 dollars above, VirtualBacon is more cautious. In his view, the proximity of $80 was not an ideal configuration, as the subsequent upper spaces had become significantly narrower when they were bought at a lower cost.

Based on this, if SOL were to rise to approximately $290 in the next round of cattle, the return would be about 3.5 times more if bought in the vicinity of $82; if bought in the vicinity of $60, the return would be close to 4.7 times. On this basis, it was noted that the purchase cost had a greater impact on the final return on high-variant assets.

He also stated that markets should no longer simply apply the expectations of the previous cycle. In its judgement, SOL has limited space for a 10-fold increase in the current cycle.