Polymarket data show that the probability of the US encryption bill Clarity Act becoming law has risen to 55 per cent, less than 40 per cent more significantly than a few days ago. The anticipated changes in the market, mainly as a result of recent shifts in the views of relevant organizations of the law enforcement system, also brought the bill to the attention of the Congress before its recess.
Law enforcement organizations show a shift.
This week, NOBLE Publicly supported Clarity Act. It was mentioned that this was the first large law enforcement organization to endorse the Act.
Previously, some law enforcement groups had expressed concern that the bill might leave loopholes for illicit funds. NOBLE indicated that the bill would not alter the federal criminal law enforcement powers on which investigators and prosecutors rely on a daily basis.
Following this statement, the United States Association of Grand County Magistrates, MCSA, also adjusted its position to “neutral”. As a result, it is believed that there has been a decrease in resistance at the law enforcement level.
The Senate window is still limited
As of early July, the bill had still not been put to a full Senate vote. As the August recess approaches, the time available to Congress is diminishing.
The expectation that the bill would be voted on or made substantial progress around 4 July was not met. It was reported that the advancement of the bill was still influenced by internal disagreements and competition on other legislative agendas.
As currently scheduled, the Senator will return to Washington after the recess on 13 July, when the House-wide voting window will be reopened. The final text of the bill is also expected to be published soon for consideration by members of Parliament.
Industry lobby continues.
Industry lobbying around the bill continues. It was reported that over 200 companies, including Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken, had appealed to the Senate for a vote.
Ripple also launched a mobile campaign in Washington on Clarity Act to continue to mobilize policy support. United States Senator Cynthia Lummis had warned that the next similar opportunity might wait until 2030 if this failed.