The chain analysis agency Allium stated that although Polymarket was legally unable to provide services to United States users, the wallets associated with the United States had been traded in the platform ' s political market over the past year in nominal amounts of approximately $571 million, on a larger scale than other countries and regions. This indicates that the demand does not disappear but continues to flow to offshore chains.
U.S.-related wallets have the highest trade value.
Allium statistics show that, for the last 12 months, the value of United States-related wallets traded in the Polymarket political contract was approximately $571 million, up from $422 million in Hong Kong, China.
According to the Agency, Polymarket shielded United States users through an IP address, but such restrictions were limited to the chain platform. Users may continue to access the platform only if they have an encrypted wallet and use VPN to hide their location. As transactions are made on stable currency and chain wallets, there are no bank or voucher accounts available for interception.
The way to identify is through chain behavior.
Allium states that its national label is not based on an IP address, but rather on the chain behavioral characteristics of the wallet, so that while VPN can bypass front-end access restrictions, it cannot hide its association with the United States at the data level.
However, the statistics also have scope limitations. Allium can only assign about 6 per cent of the Pollymarket political market wallets to specific countries, so the relevant figures are better suited to observe trends rather than as precise calibres.
American users prefer geopolitics contracts.
From the point of view of the trade, the United States purse is clearly more focused on geopolitical issues. Allium stated that 46 per cent of the nominal trade in this part of the wallet went to the geopolitical market, compared with 36 per cent for the platform as a whole. By contrast, the share of the United States purse in the electoral market was only 16 per cent, down from 32 per cent for the platform as a whole.
According to Allium, United States users' interest in foreign wars and international emergencies is significantly higher than their interest in election-type contracts. Of the 12 markets with the highest U.S.-related user transactions, 5 were related to the Iranian war. One of the largest single-size markets is the contract around whether President Zelensky of Ukraine will wear a suit, with a nominal turnover of approximately $20.8 million.
Regulatory restrictions do not eliminate demand
According to the article, such contracts are precisely the types that United States compliance platforms usually do not provide. Kalshi and Polymarket operations for United States compliance focus mainly on economic data, interest rate decisions and election markets, while contracts involving regime change, ceasefires or overseas conflicts appear more in the offshore version.
Allium data also show that the United States wallets do not significantly outperformed other users in the closed market. The percentage of the encumbrance results is 81.9 per cent and 80.3 per cent for other users, with a limited gap and a close return on holding to settlement.
The report mentions that users in the United States sometimes resort to more radical methods of betting. At some stage, for example, the United States wallets had pledged 53 per cent of the transactions to the “United States invasion of Iran”, compared to 26 per cent for other market participants at that time. However, in terms of the end result, this has not led to a higher rate of accuracy of judgement.
Overall, this data does not reflect the withdrawal of United States users from the forecast market, but rather the continuation of related transactions along the chain and the shift to offshore platforms. For the regulatory level, the question is not only whether the embargo is effective, but also whether this part of the demand will remain outside United States regulatory coverage for a long time.