SpaceX will officially incorporate the NASDAQ 100 index on July 7th. After completing a large IPO in mid-June, the company quickly moved up the stock price and then fell sharply. Market concerns have also shifted from listed heat to the actual trade performance after indexation.

IPO goes up and back.

According to reports, SpaceX, in the days following June 12th, IPO, the stock price rose to $225, and then fell around $162 last week. The inclusion of 100 implies that passive funds to track the index will be allocated, but this does not necessarily lead to a new round of increases.

The article mentions that where a stock has increased significantly before being added to the index, the market tends to pre-empt passive buyout expectations. By the time it is formally incorporated, the new interest may have been absorbed by the price.

Palantir and Strategy

Two cases in recent years have been used to illustrate this point. After Palantir was included in NASDAQ 100 on 23 December 2024, stock prices peaked before and after inclusion and then fell about 25 per cent in the following weeks.

Strategy also entered the index on the same day. As one of the largest listed companies in the United States stock market with bitcoin, the unit had reached a high point in the first month of incorporation, approaching $543, while bitcoin was around $100,000. It now has a stock price of about $100, and the higher point is about 80%.

A.I. has raised expectations.

The article also states that SpaceX's IPO is at a time when the AI infrastructure trades heat up. Semiconductor and storage-type stocks were generally strong at the time, and the supply of chips and high-bandwidth memory was strained, further exacerbating market sentiment.

Against this background, the strength of SpaceX following its listing reflects, in part, the concentration of funds on AI infrastructure. The formal inclusion of a reference point 100, taking into account previous cases, does not necessarily extend the previous upward pace.

  • Inclusion index time: 7 July
  • Post-IPO height: about 225 US dollars
  • Returned last week: about $162