Bitcoin has temporarily stood above $63,000 since the rebound last week, but resistance in the vicinity of $64,000 has not been effectively broken. The short-line sentiment has turned into caution, as markets are betting on the Fed’s subsequent interest rate cuts, and as oil prices rise and the risks of shipping in the Middle East become more volatile.

ETF Refund provides support

Over the past week, bitcoin has been pushed up by one macro-expected improvement. With weak employment data in the United States, the expected warming of the market against interest rates was underpinned by a combination of risk assets. At the same time, United States spot bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of two consecutive trading days, ending a situation in which there had been continuous outflows, indicating that some of the institutional funds had begun to return.

However, there has also been increased volatility in business hold dynamics. Strategy previously disclosed that it had recorded a deficit of $8.32 billion and sold 3,588 bitcoins in the second quarter because of the holding of bitcoin. Following the announcement, Bitcoin fell in the vicinity of $61,000 at one time, with approximately $500 million of leverage and multiple warehousing being liquidated within 24 hours, and the price then reverted to over $63,000.

64,000 to 65,000 United States dollars in apparent resistance

In terms of the price structure, bitcoin, although it has clearly rebounded from the $58,000 region, is still not back on the critical position of $65,000. According to the report, prices are still below the 50-day average of approximately $658 million, indicating that the upper pressure has not completely receded.

Short-term trends are more cautious. 4 On the hour chart, bitcoin is still operating above multiple short-term averages, with a layer of support in the 6.15 to $63,000 region. However, there was a preponderance of relatively strong and weak indicators, which meant that when prices were high, kinetic energy did not increase simultaneously and the purchasing power slowed.

  • 6.45 million to 66,000 United States dollars, with a high level of empty liquidation
  • 6.1 to $6.15 million, with multiple liquidations centralized
  • If the price is removed from the current range, the volatility may be further magnified.

According to analysts, the Fed minutes could be a short-term catalyst. If the price is back on the line of $64,000, the market will continue to test higher resistance; if supported by $607 million to $61,000, the back-up pressure may rise again.

Oil prices and geo-situation increased disturbances

In addition to interest rate expectations, energy prices and geo-situations also influence market judgement. The price of crude oil rose above $69 per barrel due to a renewed rise in shipping security concerns near the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices continue to rise, it is possible to re-inflate inflation expectations and weaken the market ' s commitment to the Fed ' s rapid easing.

This means that the bitcoin shortline is still in the do-a-saw phase. ETF financial return and interest rate reductions are expected to provide support, but oil prices, geo-risks and technical resistance have not receded. Next, the Fed's summary and the breakthrough between $64,000 and $65,000 remain the focus of market attention.