Citing the CriptoQuant analysis, the foreign source states that bitcoin has risen from $58,500 to $63,500 for almost two weeks, but that the main thrust of this round backlash may not be United States spot purchase, but rather leverage from offshore derivatives markets. According to the article, structural divisions have emerged behind the price recovery.
Binance, there's a significant increase in the funding rate.
According to the analyst CryptoOnchain, the Binance fund rate rose by 86 per cent from the 90-day baseline, indicating a rapid increase in the number of positions in the derivatives market. By contrast, Coinbase Premium Index has been in a negative range for the last 14 days and fluctuated between -0.09 and -0.17.
In market observations, the Coinbase premium is usually seen as a reference indicator for United States institutions and large spot purchases; the Binance fund rate better reflects the mood of the global offshore derivatives market. According to the article, when the funding rates went up rapidly and the Coinbase premium continued to be negative, it was often suggested that higher prices were more leveraged than on-the-shelf.
U.S. spot demand is not up to date.
According to CryptoOnchain, this deviation means that the current round increase lacks simultaneous confirmation of the United States spot market. Without more stable off-the-shelf financing, price dependence on leverage positions would be higher and short-line fluctuations could be magnified.
The article mentions that the most interesting signal for the time being remains whether the Coinbase premium has returned to neutrality or turned positive. If this indicator continues to be negative, there will be no significant change in the weak purchasing position of the United States.
No synchronous improvement in chain activity
In addition to the separation of derivatives from spot, analysts also mentioned that the NVT Golden Cross indicator was 579 per cent lower than the 90-day baseline. This indicator is used to compare bitcoin network values with chain transactions.
According to the article, price increases are accompanied by a lack of parallel follow-up of chain transactions, suggesting that the market value expands faster than the use of the network. In such cases, the rebound is more vulnerable to changes in mood and leverage.
Combined with the above-mentioned indicators, the recovery of Bitcoin is still considered fragile by external sources. If the subsequent kinetic energy is reduced, the already elevated multiple-head positions may be under concentrated silo pressure, thus magnifying the retreat.