Bitcoin returned to the vicinity of $64,000 on Sunday, recovering part of the land lost after last Friday ' s fall, but the whole remains within the pre-existing shock zone. The market is now looking at two clues at the same time: first, the continued outflow of United States spot bitcoin ETF and, second, the risk that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could push up oil prices and thus affect risk asset performance.
Prices are still stuck in critical areas.
According to market data quoted by crypto.news, Bitcoin reported US$ 64,008, an increase of 0.87 per cent for 24 hours. Between US$ 63,188 and US$ 64,462 on that day, the 24-hour deal exceeded US$ 16.6 billion. On a weekly basis, however, bitcoin continued to decline slightly, suggesting that only part of the decline was repaired by the weekend rebound.
Traders now focus on $62,000 support and $67,000 resistance. Short-line moods could weaken even further if $62,000 were to fall; if $67,000 were to reposition, the market would be able to move the target up.
Last Friday, bitcoin fell by $63,000, reflecting the overall risk retreat of the encryption market. The price then rebounded. In addition to bitcoin, the Ether, Solana and Tron weekends have stabilized, while Dogecoin continues to be weaker than most large coins.
The Holmuze situation is provoking the macromassive.
The market is also concerned about the ceasefire negotiations planned in Switzerland between the United States and Iran. It was mentioned that the parties had previously signed a memorandum of understanding and set a 60-day window to move forward with longer-term arrangements.
However, once again, Iran ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, so that market risk did not recede. The Strait of Hormuz is an important global pipeline for oil transport, and once it is effectively closed, oil prices may rise and put pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin.
The rise in oil prices could also re-inflate inflation expectations, thereby stifling market expectations of the Federal Reserve ' s easing policy. For the encryption market, this means that the liquidity environment may not be significantly improved and that the short-line movement of bitcoin will continue to be influenced by events outside the encryption market.
ETF Continuously Outpressed Demand
On the financial front, Galaxy Research states that the US spot bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $6.35 billion over the last 30 days, the largest single-month outflow in its tracking data.
The data show that for six consecutive weeks there has been a net outflow of funds and that the cumulative net inflow has fallen from about $63 billion in October 2025 to $53.4 billion. This suggests that institutional demand is cooler than before, while bitcoin prices are still in the vicinity of support positions.
ETF financial outflows do not necessarily immediately trigger price failures, but they weaken stable buyouts that previously supported the increase in bitcoin. Against the background of rising macro-risks, if the Fund continues to bleed, the spot market will need to take on more sales pressure, and it will be more difficult for prices to return to above $67,000.
At present, while bitcoin is stable for the time being, the continuation of the rebound will depend on the scaling up of the exchange, the improvement of the ETF financial flows and the easing of the geo-situation situation.