Foreign media: Bitcoin may be nearing the stage low of the current round, with some long-term indicators returning to areas that have emerged on several previous occasions. However, the exchange buys are not currently in the same direction as the U.S. F.E.F. flows, and short-line movements still lack clearer confirmation signals.
Citing CryptoQuant data, the article states that the CVDD indicator for measuring the behaviour of long-term holders of bitcoin has fallen to 0.3, entering very low areas. Historically, similar levels have emerged in and around 2019 and 2022, and markets have since experienced a larger rebound.
CVDD back to the historical lows.
CVDD, which is referred to as the cumulative value destruction-days indicator, estimates the fair value of bitcoin down the line, mainly through the chain conduct of long-term currency holders. According to the article, this indicator once again falls into the very low areas, suggesting that the market is close to the more representative undervalued areas of the past cycle.
Price close to 200 weeks average.
From the weekly line, bitcoin is currently running near a simple moving average of 200 weeks. This position has repeatedly served as a structural support in previous cycles. Following the last price return near the average line, Bitcoin worked long hours between July 2022 and October 2023, and then started a new round of increases.
On this basis, the article assumes that if the market reproduces a similar rhythm again, the follow-up may be either quicker or longer-term. It is also mentioned that the cumulative/distribution indicator indicates that the purchase pressure is still in place and that the relevant trade-off data is 1.71 million bitcoins, indicating that the funds were not completely withdrawn in the short to medium term.
Exchanges and ETF flows
The key to determining the sustainability of the rebound remains the expansion of the real buyout. In the past seven days, the Centralized Exchange net cash flow has been netted at a level of approximately $234.75 million, while the total amount purchased in Bitcoin over the same period was approximately $9.36 billion, indicating that some of the funds are still being absorbed at a low level.
But the United States market has weak signals. According to the article, the U.S. F. ETF ' s overall net flow continued to be in favour of sales, with a net sale of approximately $226.84 billion, indicating that the seller ' s strength had not yet been fully discharged. Bitcoin may still be dominated by low-level shocks in the short term until broader incremental demand emerges.