Bitcoin is approaching a long-term technology support, and the market is beginning to look at lower-level chain cost zones. CoinDesk quoted data from the chain that if 200 weekly averages were missed, approximately $50,000 to $54,000 could be the main game area for the next phase.

200 weeks near the average line.

At present, Bitcoin is testing 200 weeks of moving mean lines, a long-term indicator of approximately $6.24 million. This position is usually seen as an important support for the bear market phase and is therefore able to hold it and become the focus of short-line observations.

If this level is broken, market concerns may turn to the realized prices of bitcoin. The so-called realized price is based on the average purchase cost of bitcoin in circulation along the chain and currently stands at approximately $534.57 million.

It's always close to the bottom of the phase.

In terms of historical performance, bitcoin fell in 2011, 2015, 2018 to 2019, in March 2020 and in the next cycle of 2022, before it gradually reached the bottom of the formation phase.

This means that the market may not have completed the typical bottom recognition process in the current cycle if Bitcoin has not fallen to this level.

At the emotional level, when prices break the overall holding costs, the losses expand rapidly and tend to trigger a concentrated sale. If bitcoin falls close to $54,000, market pressure may increase significantly.

Big whales cost between $50,000 and $54,000.

When split by the size of the wallet, the support areas given by the data on the chain are clearer:

  • Holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC giant whales at an average cost of about $5.43 million
  • Holding more than 100,000 BTC addresses at an average cost of slightly less than $49,000
  • Holds less than 1 BTC at an average cost of less than $48,000

This group of data means that the cost of large holders is concentrated in the range of $50,000 to $5.43 million. If these funds are chosen to be taken over near the cost area, the market may form a new support in this area.

In contrast, the costs for small holders are lower and, even if prices continue to fall, most people remain in a floating state with relatively limited passivity in the short term.

Overall, the chain data do not confirm that the bottom has emerged, but historical experience suggests that, if Bitcoin eventually falls overall to achieve prices, the $50,000 to $54,000 range could be an important point in determining whether the bottom line of the round is nearing its end.