Bitcoin has increased slightly in the past 24 hours, but has been in a fall-back for almost a week. According to the external review, BTC short-lines are more likely to perpetuate vulnerability than to quickly recover higher ground in terms of liquidation distribution, price models and historical cycles.

$573 million for close-end settlement of hot areas

According to the article, 30 major exchanges have collected larger liquidation orders in the vicinity of $573 million, citing liquidation data for nearly a month. This area is clearly below current prices, but also closer to the upper clearing area of $70,000.

Under such an analytical framework, prices tend to converge towards regions with more liquidity and proximity. As a result, $573 million is considered to be more of a concern below. If the decline continues to expand, the vicinity of $473 million is also classified as another more visible clearing area.

  • Settlement of hot areas below the immediate end: approximately $573 million
  • Large settlement hot areas above: approximately $70,000
  • Lower liquidation area: approximately $473 million

The rainbow is missing again.

The article also mentions that Bitcoin has once again fallen through the so-called Rainbow Map. The model has long been used by some market participants to observe bitcoin valuation zones. The last apparent fall occurred in 2022, when the BTC went down to $15.5 million.

According to the commentary, this collapse does not imply a simple replica of the 2022 trend, but at least an indication of the current price intensity. There are also market participants who believe that the reference value of such long-term models is declining as market structures change and therefore cannot be used as a basis for judgement alone.

The pace of history's halving has been raised again.

The article argues that historically, around 826 days after each halving, bitcoin tends to undergo a deeper round of adjustments and to form a clearer low point within the following 70 to 110 days. At this point in time, the market may continue to be pressurized around late July, and the larger lows may not appear until October or November.

This judgement also combines the data on the transfer chain. The article mentions that Belet recently transferred about 2400 BTCs to Coinbase and about 38.3 million ETHs. The comment was made that such transfers might mean that potential sales pressure was increasing, but that there was no direct evidence of eventual market entry.

  • To BTC: about 2,400
  • Transferred to ETH: approximately 383,000
  • Estimated total value: over $200 million

Overall, the central point of the commentary is that bitcoin still lacks a sufficiently strong rebound. Short-line markets are more concerned about whether the lower liquidity areas are being reached and whether transfers on the institutional chain continue to increase.