According to media reports, a Chinese bitcoin miner, judged on the basis of a four-year half-cycle model, may have a low point in Bitcoin's own bear market in the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices falling from 42,000 to $44,000. This judgment means that BTC could still fall by about 30 per cent from its current level if it develops in the context described in the paper.
The four-year cycle points to the end of 2026.
According to the article, this exercise is based on the traditional four-year half-cycle. According to the model, the lower point in the next cycle of the current round may fall between October and December 2026, with one of the measured dates being 31 October 2026, at a corresponding price of approximately US$ 44,016.
It was mentioned that the core assumption of such models was that bitcoin cycles would repeat similar rhythms after halving. As the market value increases, price volatility will gradually recede, so that there may be less room for subsequent cycles to rise or fall than in the early years.
The model uses the "jump" approach.
Bitcoin price fluctuations are compared to a continuous rebound after the spherical drop. After each rebound, the amplitude decreases. On this basis, the miner believes that, as the market volume expands, the volatility of bitcoin will gradually decrease and at the end of the cycle will take a more moderate form.
This statement is still, in essence, an extrapolation from history and does not confirm future prices. It was also noted that there was considerable uncertainty as to whether the encryption market would continue to repeat the cyclical characteristics of the past.
It still depends on the continuation of history.
If this judgement is established, Bitcoin may still experience a deeper resonance before the next round of major base formations. However, the articles do not give more chain data, financial flows or macro variables for cross-checking, mainly based on the cyclical model itself.
By the nature of the information, this is closer to a market view than to a certain event. For market participants, the judgement reflects the expectations of some groups of miners as to the location of the subsequent cycle, rather than the price changes that have taken place.