Foreign sources cited the point of view of the Digital Assets hedge fund Hyperion Demus that bitcoin might be approaching an important point. According to the agency, four self-contained chain indicators have appeared simultaneously, which occurred only five times in the 15-year history of Bitcoin, while on previous occasions they were close to the bottom of the corresponding cycle.
Confirm signal within 90 days or now
Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager of the Fund, believes that the market is still one last step away. In his judgement, Bitcoin is likely to have one of two scenarios in the next 90 days: a breakthrough in a critical resistance position near $82,000; and a return to a range of $54,000 to $57,000, with the possibility of a short down to $48,000 in extreme cases and the completion of the final round of centralized sales.
To CoinDesk, Sullivan states that this group of signals is currently “almost met”, but the price pattern is not yet completely complete. He therefore did not conclude that the bear market had ended, but preferred to regard the current stage as the final certification period before the trend transition.
ETF Change price structure
According to the report, the latest Bitcoin offer was $594 million, a cumulative decline of about 23 per cent over the past month. During the same period, the United States stock market had previously risen to a historic high and was subsequently under pressure this month. According to Sullivan, if either of the two situations occurred, the subsequent movement of bitcoin could become more polarized with the wider financial market.
He also indicated that the current pessimism of the market vis-à-vis TTcos was too dependent on narrative interpretation to ignore changes in the market structure itself. Bitcoin used to have a relatively high correlation with global liquidity, especially global M2, but it has been moving away for about nine months.
The data on the chain still holds.
In Sullivan, it appears that the deviation is not only on bitcoin, but also in precious metals. The recent price performance in the United States may be explained more by the structural changes that have taken place since the introduction of the real United States bitcoin ETF than the traditional macro variants, which have led to some reduction in the volatility of the policy.
Despite weak price performance, he believed that the chain data had not deteriorated in parallel, but rather showed some signs of improvement, including an increase in wallet activity, more bitcoin outflows from the exchange and the persistence of network indicators. Such price deviations from fundamentals are the main reason for their continued focus on potential bottom signals.