As the encryption market continues to fall, it is projected that traders in the market are moving further away from sight. According to the data, the market is now more inclined to believe that bitcoin will fall to $55,000 first, and that the ETA will fall to $1,500 before there is a clear rebound.

Prognosis of market bets.

Myriad, a projected market platform operated by Decrypt's parent company, Dastan, shows that the probability of traders betting bitcoin down to $55,000 and up to $80,000 was 77 per cent; the probability of an ETA falling to $1,500 and returning to $3000 was 88 per cent.

Over the past month, there has been a marked increase in this type of air bet. Of these, the probability of bitcoin falling to $55,000 increased by 44 per cent. At the time of the submission, the Bitcoin report was $59,511, a 24-hour drop of about 1 per cent, and a cumulative decline of about 23 per cent in the last month.

STRC becomes a short-term focus

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, in the short term, the market is paying high attention to the trade performance of the STRC priority shares under Strategy. In his view, in addition to macro-factors such as inflation concerns and interest rate expectations, investors were more concerned that Strategy might be at risk of being forced to sell bitcoin after the SRC continued to underpressure.

With this concern, Strategy ' s successor arrangement became a short-term market observation point. Analysts mentioned that companies could help to ease market tensions by increasing their cash position, increasing the buffer space for dividends paid.

Weakness at the same time.

It also failed to get rid of the wheel, with prices falling to $1576, 24 hours down 2.6 per cent, and nearly 30 days down 25 per cent. At current levels, the target of $1,500 set at ETH distance from Myriad market is only about 5.2 per cent higher.

Other prognosis market platforms also give off oscillating signals. Kalshi ' s contract for 2026 price zones shows that bitcoin had a risk of falling by $400,000 at 36 per cent and a risk of falling by $1,000 at 34 per cent. At present, bitcoin is close to 53 per cent above historical heights and more than 68 per cent to the Taifeng.