Once again, there was a clear divergence in the market around the bottom of the bitcoin. According to Bitcoin Advocate Samson Mow, the traditional four-year half-cycle has changed, and the current downside of this round is at an approximate low point; however, many analysts have determined that there may be room for a further fall in prices.

Mow says the cycle has accelerated.

On social platform X, Mow stated that 37 days before it was halved in April 2024, Bitcoin had reached the height of its history earlier than in previous cycles. In his view, that meant that the pace of the market had accelerated, that the reference value had been declining in the past, relying on the bottom of the halving point.

He questioned the fact that some market participants were still mechanically applying the old cycle, suggesting that if the high points were already in advance, the subsequent bottom formation could also be ahead of schedule. On the basis of this judgement, Mow concluded that bitcoin had been formed at the bottom of the current round.

There are still differences between the low spots.

However, there was no consensus in the market. The CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole recently mentioned that, from a historically more effective reverse indicator, the space for Bitcoin to continue to decline may be small.

This indicator is based on a simple moving average of 50 and 100 weeks. Currently 50 weekly averages are close to breaking 100 weekly averages, forming what is called a “dead fork”. In previous cycles, similar signals were sometimes close to the bottom of the market, so some analysts saw them as positive signals.

  • Markus Thielen thinks it's more likely to meet him near $55,000. Bottom
  • He expected it to be between August and October.
  • Arthur Hayes looks at a potential low point of about $40,000.

The 200-week average is still under attention.

CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten recently suggested that bitcoin might need to fall by more than 15 percent to really be a low point in this round. He is based on 200 weeks of moving the average line that has long been the focus of the market.

He noted that bitcoin was testing the 200-week mean line, combining data on the chain, and that 50,000 to 54,000 United States dollars would be an important price area for the next phase. According to his observations, bitcoin eventually fell at the bottom of the cyclical cycle of several major bear markets since 2011, which has not yet occurred in the current round.

From the current market point of view, the differences have centred on two points: whether the traditional four-year cycle is still valid and whether the new demand for institutional funds and off-the-shelf ETFs has changed the pace of the post-half-century history.