Foreign media quoted Benjamin Cowen, an analyst, as saying that bitcoin had received the first weekly line of 200 weeks below the average moving index, triggering a debate on whether the cycle was invalid. In his view, however, this trend is not uncommon, but rather relatively similar to that of the past bear market.

The current trend is approaching the 2018 rhythm.

Cowen mentioned that Bitcoin's last weekly line fell 200 weeks and EMA took place in June 2022, when it was in the depths of the last bear market. In his view, the market had interpreted this decline as a “four-year cycle failure” or “this difference” that might ignore the pace that had been repeated in history.

According to his comb, in 2018 and 2026 there was a similar path: lows in February, higher lows in March and early April, and then again in June. This structural overlap is an important basis for his current judgement.

$60,000 is considered a key observation point

Cowen compares $60 million in 2026 with $600,000 in 2018 and 2019. Bitcoin rebounded briefly at the beginning of July, but then returned to the vicinity of $600,000 in mid-July, after a bottom search in June 2018.

He asked whether $60,000 would become a similar structural anchor for the current round. If this position persists, it may mean that the market is approaching the end of the current cycle.

Bear City ends in two ways.

According to the article, Cowen divided the possible end of the bear market into two categories.

  • Time-driven adjustments: low point in the early summer formation phase, rebound in the middle and later part of the summer, followed by final bottom exploration in the third or first quarter of 2026.
  • Price-driven exit: External catalytic triggers a sharp increase in trade, a rapid clearing of leverage positions and a centralized reset of chain indicators, leading to an early end of the cycle.

In his view, the former situation remained a more fundamental judgement. The latter was closer to market performance in March 2020 when the outbreak hit, when external events rapidly compressed the clean-up process and made room for subsequent upswing cycles.

Quantification is still missing.

Cowen also mentioned that three times in 2014, 2018 and 2022, near the bottom of the bear market, had been accompanied by a marked surge in trade. However, in the current cycle, such Quantities have not yet appeared.

This means that, although there are similarities between price structures and the historical stage, whether or not the market has been finally cleared is yet to be further tested in terms of subsequent turnover and price performance.