Bitcoin has fluctuated for five days in a narrow range of 59,000 to 60,000 dollars. According to multiple analysts, the seemingly calm movement is not easy because the zone is under critical support and the 50-to-200-day average is still going down.

Tray position below critical support

CoinDesk cites the point of Alex Kuptsikeevich, the FxPro Chief Market Analyst, that the current traverse appears to be in a similar, but very different, position than it was during the spring and summer of 2024. This was done in an upward trend, and this time in a fallback.

He noted that the current price range was below the level that had triggered a rebound in February and early this year and below the 50 and 200-day averages. Both lines are down at the same time and are usually considered by the market to be emptied signals. This means that the current trend is more like a standstill in a downward trend than the foundation before the new rebound.

The analyst mentioned the location of $40,000.

Kuptsikeevich believes that, if this sorting eventually breaks down, a more obvious lower target than that of the next bitcoin could be around $40,000. It is also mentioned that some of the chain indicators reinforce this caution.

CriptoQuant anonymous analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders began to show signs of “surrender”, i.e. leaving at a loss price. These stages tend to be accompanied by an increase in short-term pressures during the historical cycle, but often also when markets are close to stage lows.

Weighted demand and pressure on institutions

In terms of chain activity, active address numbers and trading activities have been at a low level in the recent decline, indicating that the demand for a purchaser remains weak. The market is also digesting news that Strategy may be selling bitcoin reserves.

According to reports, the company with the largest shares in bitcoin was noticeably weak last week, and its preferred share, STRC, fell to a record low of approximately $71 at one time, and the average share fell 25 per cent a week to its lowest level since February 2024. Subsequently, the company indicated that it could sell over $1 billion in bitcoin reserves in order to improve its financial position, and the Board had authorized management to sell them without requiring individual approval.

In this market, where the market is weak, the potential for large sales has further suppressed emotions. The macro-environment is also not supported. The United States dollar has grown stronger recently, and its appreciation usually puts pressure on risk assets denominated in United States dollars, such as special currencies.

At the same time, the United States stock market, driven by the optimistic expectations of AI spending, is approaching a quarter that has performed better in recent years. The continued flow of funds to the United States shares has also put the encryption market under more pronounced diversion throughout June. By the data in the text, bitcoin has recorded, or will record, a drop of about 13 per cent this quarter.