Bitcoin fell in the first two quarters of 2026, and the opening was only three times in its history. As the third quarter begins, the market is re-evaluating whether the fall is only a phased adjustment or a continuation of longer-term vulnerability.

The first half of the year has continued to expand.

According to Coinglass, bitcoin fell 22.2 per cent in the first quarter and 14.09 per cent in the second quarter. As of Wednesday, prices remained volatile above $59,000, with overall performance significantly weaker than at the usual pace in previous years.

Two consecutive quarters of a year of collapse, before it only occurred in 2018 and 2022. Both years were at a weaker stage in the history of Bitcoin, and no significant rehabilitation occurred in the second half of the year.

  • In the third quarter of 2018, only the increase was 3.6 per cent.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2018, it fell 42%.
  • The fall continued in the second half of the year

The three or four seasons have lapsed.

In terms of long-term statistics, the three quarters are usually the least performing quarter of bitcoin, while the four quarters tend to be stronger and have helped the market to recover the decline in the year on several occasions in the past. This is also a seasonal feature often mentioned by the market.

But in 2018 and 2022, this pattern did not work. CoinDesk argued that deeper market pressures overwhelmed seasonal factors at the time, and that the pre-optimal end-of-year situation eventually turned into a continuing decline.

ETF Outflow and Financial Wheel Pressure

The report mentions that this cycle is weaker than a short-term panic. Over the past month, United States spot bitcoin ETFs have seen record outflows, and the number of active users in the chain has remained low, indicating that market participation remains weak.

Meanwhile, some of the funds continue to flow to AI equities. The related plate just recorded the best quarterly performance for many years, while the encrypted asset returned during the same period. The strengthening of the United States dollar is also increasing the pressure, and the recent decline of the yen to decades of lows has further pushed the dollar up.

$40,000 for areas of concern

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich says that, if the current support fails, $40,000 could be the next price area of concern. With only a small rebound of about 1 per cent in bitcoin, the market direction remains to be seen.