In the first half of the year, the AI deal boosted the US share technology, but the bitcoin was clearly lagging behind. After entering the second half of the year, foreign media argued, market concerns could shift from the AI concept to companies and assets that could truly benefit from the technological change.
AI transactions start to split
CoinDesk quotes former Swiss executive Mark Connors that AI is no longer pushing up the technology unit without distinction, but is accelerating the distinction between beneficiaries and pressurers. The beneficiary is primarily the company that built the AI infrastructure, while the other is the enterprise that may be weakened by the large model and AI agent.
He mentioned that the recent weakness of consultancy and some traditional software companies reflected that investors were reassessing their growth prospects. According to the article, this means that the fragmentation within the United States stock in the second half of the year is likely to grow further, rather than simply continuing to be driven by a few popular concepts.
Macro policies still dominate the market
Connors also indicated that macroeconomic factors remained the most important driving force of the current market. According to the data referred to in the paper, there has been an increase in the correlation between equities, bonds, bulk commodities and encrypted assets in recent months, suggesting that investors are responding to policy changes and are overburdening judgements about the fundamentals of a single company.
In his view, the Federal Reserve's policy path and the United States Treasury's financing arrangements could continue to disturb the market for some time to come. As a result, the movement of financial markets in the second half of the year is likely to be more repetitive and volatility will not end soon.
ETF Change Bitcoin Transactions
The digital hedge fund co-founder Chris Sullivan focused on changes in market structures. In his view, after the introduction of the United States spot bitcoin ETF and the hedge of institutions in the derivatives market, the way in which bitcoin was traded had changed, and some traditional relationships with macroindicators were weakening in the past.
According to the article, this fall has also raised an old problem: Whether Bitcoin is still in the traditional four-year cycle. Earlier, it had been argued that the institutional funds generated by the spot ETF would depress volatility and weaken the previously visible alternation of Bitcoin. But Sullivan does not agree with that.
In his view, the current downturn was still consistent with the historical cycle and the market had not yet reached its final bottom. In his judgement, the bottom of a bitcoin bear may fall between $54,000 and $58,000. This perception is underpinned by basic improvements in the chain and by historically low levels of investor sentiment.
Overall, the review argues that the second half of the year does not necessarily follow the single narrative of the first half. For the US stock, the AI theme will shift from generalized to filtering; in the case of ETF, changes in the structure of new transactions and macro-policies after ETF may jointly magnify price volatility.