Foreign media interviews with the encryption analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin may have entered the final stage of the current bear market, but the market has yet to show the final signal he has identified. In his judgment, the real low point is more likely to be at the end of the third quarter of 2026 to the beginning of the fourth quarter.
He's waiting for the bottom line.
Cowen argued that there had been a marked surge in trade at the end of several bear markets in the past. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, near the low point, the market experienced a concentrated sale, followed by a decline in sales pressure.
He said that it was not a single price point, but rather whether there had been a similar drop in Quantities at a historical stage. If such “surrender” appeared earlier, he would adjust his judgement accordingly rather than adhere to the original timetable.
Realized prices remain the focus of debate
Bitcoin has achieved a price of approximately $53,000 in the current cycle. This indicator is often used to measure average market holding costs. After several rounds of bears, bitcoin eventually fell to this level, and the market has been discussing whether the delay in falling meant that the structure was stronger or that the fall was being pushed back.
Cowen does not agree with the expression “manifestly delayed”. He mentioned that in the last two rounds of the last three rounds, bitcoin also fell the price achieved in the fourth quarter, so that the current rhythm was not necessarily abnormal.
From 30,000 to 38,000 United States dollars of interest
For deeper fallback space, Cowen refers to a balance price range of $30,000 to $38,000. In his view, if Bitcoin fell into this zone, accompanied by a significant amount of emissions, it would be closer to the end of the bear market in history, rather than just the beginning of a new and continuous fall.
Technically, bitcoin is now in the 200-week mean line between bear market resistance. According to him, the price structure was still weak, and a reversal of the trend was not precluded this summer, but the benchmark judgement was to go down and enter a more sustainable recovery phase.
I don't know.
Cowen's more cautious with respect to the Yamaya coin. Although the original text does not open a specific currency path, both the title of the article and the findings of the interview point to the same judgement: even if Bitcoin moves closer to the end of the cycle, the overall performance of the Shancocoin will not necessarily improve simultaneously, and the overall warming may take longer.
He also mentioned that the four-year cycle was not unique to the encryption market. In addition to the history of bitcoin, the United States share has experienced important lows of close to a four-year round at several stages, which is one of the reasons why he continues to refer to the cyclical framework.