According to foreign media, the forecast market now gives only a 17 per cent probability of rising to $100,000 in Bitcoin. After falling behind in the first half of the year, the market has yet to arrive at a consistent judgement of the second half of the year, and spot ETF flows, the strength of the United States dollar and the Federal Reserve policy are expected to be seen as three major influencing factors.

Bitcoin is still shaking between lows.

It was reported that bitcoin had fluctuated in the recent period between $5.88 million and $62,000, significantly below the previous peak of the phase close to $126,000. The closing of approximately $60 million in June, compared with $93,000 at the beginning of the year, showed a marked weakening of the year.

However, in terms of historical performance, July is usually a relatively strong month for bitcoin. In the past 13 years, nine years have recorded an increase in July, with an average return of over 7 per cent. This is also why some traders still expect to retain some of them for the second half of the year.

Wall Street agency judgement.

At the institutional level, market differences remain evident. Standard Chartered Bank maintains its judgement that bitcoin rose to $100,000 at the end of the year, believing that, once the ETF pressure is eased, the current weakness may turn into a more favourable entry range.

Citicorp, for its part, reduced the target price of bitcoin for the next 12 months from $143,000 to $82,000. Reasons include the continued outflows of spot ETFs, weak investor demand and slow progress in United States encryption legislation.

Rising and lower triggers

Nexo Analyst Iliya Kalchev believes that, if the financial environment turns to easing, there is still an opportunity for bitcoin to retest and break high. The driving conditions include policy easing, the weakening of the dollar and a renewed expansion of liquidity.

However, this scenario still depends on a number of premises: a decrease in long-term holder sales pressure, a re-inflow of institutional funds and a more moderate Federal Reserve interest rate position. If, on the contrary, the hawk policy, the dollar boom and the ETF continue to flow, it is still possible to press prices to between $53,000 and $57,000 in support.

Additional information:According to the report, the market will then be more concerned about the Federal Reserve Conference at the end of July and whether there has been an improvement in the flow of cash ETF funds, both of which will have a direct impact on whether Bitcoin will be able to move out of the current zone.