Foreign media: Following the emergence of precious metals as a few of the major commodities that have continued to grow this year, the movement of gold has begun to cause disagreement. According to Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg industry research analyst, gold prices may have reached a more sustainable high point in 2026 and fall back in the second half of the year.

Higher gold and commodity index premiums

According to the article, precious metals are almost the only major block in the current commodity market that continues to rise and hold up the increase. McGlone argues that gold remains the strongest driving factor in the metal market and that its movement has a greater impact on the entire commodity plate.

He noted that, after the gold had risen in the quarter to a high level around about $5,500 per ounce, the aging pattern had been signaled to be weak. In other words, a larger yearline larvae after a significant increase often implies a reduced kinetic energy, and may then enter the adjustment phase.

In 1980, the trend was mentioned again.

McGlone also compared the current market with 1980. According to the article, the last time gold had a similar high premium on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, it was in 1980 and has since experienced a long fall in gold prices.

At the same time, he noted that the current environment was not exactly the same as it had been in 1980, especially in the context of inflation. In his view, however, the strength of gold prices vis-à-vis other commodities had been overstretched and the risk of a return to normal in the future was increasing.

Commodity boards are under stock market pressure.

In addition to the gold itself, McGlone also discussed the relative performance of commodities and the US stock. He stated that while the Bloomberg Commodity Index had risen to a new high in the first half of the year, that trend was not necessarily strong.

According to the article, the overall return on the index is still close to historical lows relative to the standard 500. According to McGlone, one of the more direct routes for commodities to clearly win the stock market is a sharp drop in US stock.

In his view, however, this was not an ideal situation for commodities. If the US stock continues to rise, commodities may continue to lag behind; if the stock market falls, risk-averse sentiment and risk-assets stress may also slow commodity prices. In the coming months, the market will test the sustainability of the gold relative to the entire commodity plate.