According to the latest analysis by Coin Bueau, traders waiting for the altcoin season found that market performance was no longer the same as in the past. Data suggest that the pattern of financial flows has broken down and that funds no longer flow from bitcoin to smaller tokens.

For example, in the past, profits tended to flow from bitcoin to Ethera, then to large capitalization and finally to small tokens. However, this model has ceased to function. The current ratio of utco to utco has fallen to about 0.0268, a new low for many years, compared to about 0.08 in the altcoin season of 2021, which fell by almost 35 per cent over the past year.

The market is still in Bear City.

A number of indicators show a clear downward trend: Bitcoin currently has a trade price of slightly over $62,000, which is about 45 per cent lower than last year; nearly 84 per cent of altcoin currently has a transaction price below its 200-day moving average; the Fear and Greed Index is in an area of extreme fear; and, according to CryptoQuant, the net spot sales of altcoin have recently reached a five-year high.

Where's the money going?

The funds did not disappear but were concentrated in a small number of dominant assets. The Bitcoin ETF of BlackRock held approximately $54 billion in assets as of March, and the analysts stated that it had formed an ETF wall that attracted funds to Bitcoin without its counterpart. The top 10 altcoin now accounts for about 80.5 per cent of the total market value of the non-bitcoin market as a whole. In the first half of this year alone, more than 70 encryption projects were closed, including a number of legitimate and well-funded enterprises, which were unable to find market convergence points.

Areas showing growth

Despite the overall downward trend, there are areas of growth. Real asset monetization has increased from about $5 billion to over $30 billion, backed by support from companies such as BlackRock; Hyperliquid has accumulated over $1.16 billion in agreement costs, mostly for the repurchase of its own coins; Aave expects to achieve a profit of about $60 million this year; Morpho is said to have financed $175 million with $2 billion in valuations; and AI-related encrypted tokens have increased significantly, with some analysts tracking the value of the field to over $8 billion and achieving three-digit annual growth.

Four signals for the future.

The analysts pointed out four indicators that would show a real recovery: a clear drop of 55 per cent in Bitcoin's dominance; the Fed's interest rate policy, which had not been achieved, and the possibility of a 70 per cent increase in current market pricing in September; the progress of the CLARITY bill, whose probabilities had allegedly been reduced from 75 per cent to close to 50 per cent, owing to a tight Senate agenda; and the continued recovery of the ETH-BTC ratio, which was seen as an early signal of a return of funds to higher-risk assets.

Historically, the strength of the altcoin season has generally arrived between 18 and 30 months after bitcoin was halved. Since the last halving took place in April 2024, the window will last until the end of 2026 and 2027, despite warnings from analysts that any recovery may reward specific projects with real users and income rather than a one-time market upgrade.