In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released today in June, and the market is assessing the impact of this data on the Fed ' s subsequent interest rate path. Whether inflation continues to cool down for encrypted assets may directly affect the short-line movement of bitcoin and overall risk preferences.
Market expectations fall to 3.8 per cent the same year
Polymarket, as quoted in the paper, expects that the CPI ring-to-ring increase of 0.2 per cent in June will be lower than 0.5 per cent in May; the same-to-year increase is expected to be 3.8 per cent, down from the previous value of 4.2 per cent. Markets also focus on the core CPI, an indicator that excludes food and energy prices and is an important reference for the Federal Reserve to observe inflation.
If inflation data are lower than expected, the market usually interprets it as a reduction in price pressures and a decrease in the need for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening its policy. Under these circumstances, risk asset sentiment may improve and Bitcoin and other encrypted assets are expected to be supported.
Higher than expected or higher interest rate concerns
If the CPI is higher than expected, the concern of the market for a renewed interest rate hike may rise, thus suppressing the performance of the encrypted market. The article mentioned that Federal Reserve Boarder Waller had recently indicated that if there was another inflationary report, he would see it as a clear signal in policy judgement rather than short-term noise.
Waller also noted that inflation had been above the Fed ' s target of 2 per cent for months and could not be easily ignored. As a result of their statements, the CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market currently expects the Fed to increase interest rates again by 51.6 per cent in September.
Bitcoin, $6.24 million.
The overall performance of the encryption market is weak before data are published. According to the paper, the total market value of the current encryption market is about $2.16 trillion, with a drop of 0.3 per cent in the day; bitcoin is traded near $6.24 million, and large market-market coins such as Taifung and XRP have fallen in the past 24 hours.
In addition to inflation data, investors are also concerned about tensions between the United States and Iran. If geo-risks continue to push up energy and transport costs, they may also affect inflation trends and further change the market ' s judgement of the Fed ' s policy.