The US Encrypted Market Structures Act, Clarity, is accelerating in Washington. According to various sources, Trump plans to meet with several senators in the White House on Thursday to discuss the way forward for the bill in the Senate, with the aim of completing the critical process before the parliamentary recess in August.

The White House meeting focused on Senate progress.

Reports indicate that the meeting will be organized around how the bill will enter the Senate. At present, parliamentarians are still in the process of harmonizing some of the provisions, and they hope that a revised version will be prepared as soon as possible and that the way will be opened for subsequent voting in the Senate as a whole.

In the view of the promoters, if the window before the August recess is missed, the subsequent advancement of the bill may be affected by the medium-term electoral cycle. As a result, the pace of recent negotiations has significantly accelerated.

Revised draft or submitted within days

Senator Thom Tillis, who participated in the coordination, expressed the hope that agreement would be reached on the remaining provisions by the end of the week so that the bill could enter the Senate voting process in a timely manner.

In an interview with the media, Senator Cynthia Lummis also stated that a revised version of the CLARITY bill was expected to be submitted in the coming days. As she expected, the bill would most likely be submitted to the Senate next week.

  • Revisions are expected to be published within days
  • The Senate vote may fall next week.
  • The goal is to move forward before the August recess.

Prognosis of short-term voting in the market

As the pace of legislative progress warms, the projection of short-term voting in the market also increases. Kalshi traders now expect that the chance that the CARITY bill will be put to the Senate for vote before the August recess is 77 per cent, a marked increase from the previous day.

However, the market remains relatively cautious in its judgement that the bill will become law during this year. Kalshi currently gives a probability of 36%, while the probability of completing legislation by 2027 is 62%. On Polymarket, traders expect the probability of the bill being signed into law this year is 39 per cent.

  • Kalshi: Probability of voting before recess 77%
  • Kalshi: Probability of this year ' s success 36%
  • Polymarket: 39% probability of success this year

The CLARITY Act is considered to be an important component of United States encrypted market structure legislation. If the Senate moves well in the coming weeks, it is expected that discussions on the division of labour and market rules will become clearer.