Foreign media: NYDIG reported in its second quarter report that bitcoin may not be over. According to the Agency, the adjustment trend from 2025 to 2026 has begun to approach the rhythm of several bear cities in 2014, 2018 and 2022, and there is still a possibility of further exploration during the year.

History points to between $38,000 and $39,000.

The report shows a cumulative decline of 32.9 per cent in the first half of Bitcoin, with a decline of 13.4 per cent in the second quarter. In contrast, traditional risk assets performed better during the same period, with the technology unit rising by 43.5 per cent and the NASDAQ 100 index rising by 27.7 per cent.

According to NYDIG, this means that the current round is weak, not driven by a broad sense of market risk avoidance, but by more internal pressure from the encrypted market. By comparing the current cycle with the past four rounds of Bear City, the Agency reported similar patterns of decline and duration.

If this historical pattern continues, Bitcoin may fall to the vicinity of $38,000 to $39,000 later this year, creating a low point in the cycle. Bitcoin is almost 50 per cent higher than its historical point of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, in terms of reported calibre.

ETF net outflow and spot demand weak

The report states that there is more to be concerned about the shortage of spot purchase boards. The United States current bitcoin ETF recorded a combined total of about $4.9 billion in net outflows in the second quarter, with large outflows of products from Belet, Greyscale and Fuda.

Morgan Stanley's new bitcoin ETF was the exception, attracting about $364.8 million in net inflows in the second quarter. According to NYDIG, this indicates that the institutional configuration has not completely disappeared, but overall demand is still insufficient to reverse market pressures.

At the same time, the total market value of the stable currency decreased by approximately $11 billion. The report views it as a signal that additional funds are flowing out of the encrypted market. If net inflows of ETF funds are not restored and the size of the stable currency is not expanded again, the off-shelf market may continue to be weak.

Leveraging up and external variables are still pressuring

NYDIG also mentioned that leverage in derivatives markets was re-accumulating. Bitcoin futures contracts continue to rise and fund rates remain positive, indicating increased leverage.

In the Agency ' s view, when spot demand is insufficient, leverage expansion exacerbates price volatility. Once the market continues to weaken, liquidation may lead to a new, passive fall.

The report also lists a number of subsequent variables, including the United States Senate policy window for the period from July to August, the Federal Reserve ' s high interest rate environment, the risk of the situation in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, and the long-term impact of the Quantum Technology Development Compared Currency Encryption System. The report also mentions that the KelpDAO cross-bridge incident once again revealed that the infrastructure and security risks of DeFi remain.