According to Goldman Sachs, the price of Brent crude oil could rise to more than $110 per barrel if the attack on the tankers again affected the transportation of crude oil in the Persian Gulf. According to the Bank, a significant decline in exports in the Gulf region is increasing global crude oil supply pressure.
Gulf exports dropped below half.
According to Goldman Sachs, crude oil exports from the Gulf region have now fallen below 50 per cent of pre-conflict levels. This means a reduction in the flow of crude oil to international markets through the Persian Gulf, with a consequent tightening of the supply side.
The Persian Gulf is one of the most important global energy transport corridors. International oil prices usually quickly reflect supply risks once tanker transport continues to be hampered.
Goldman Sachs maintains baseline projections
Despite the top scenario, Goldman Sachs did not adjust its baseline projections. The Bank still expects that Brent crude oil will be about $80 per barrel at the end of 2026 and about $75 per barrel in 2027.
This means that, in Goldman Sachs ' view, a significant increase in oil prices depends on the duration of the suspension of exports and whether Gulf transport continues to be affected by attacks.
Increased supply or lower oil prices
At the same time, Goldman Sachs noted that Brent oil prices could also fall back to $60 per barrel if production increased more than expected. In other words, the current oil price outlook remains highly dependent on supply-side changes.
The logic of market pricing suggests that geo-conflict pushes up short-term risk premiums, while the subsequent direction of prices continues to depend on the rate of recovery of exports and the ability of new production to fill the gap.