According to foreign sources, the White House is accelerating the promotion of new legal instruments for the renewal of existing tariff arrangements by 24 July, following the United States Supreme Court ' s call in February to suspend large-scale tariffs previously imposed by the Trump administration under the Emergency Powers Act. According to the article, one of the core objectives is to fill the fiscal gap resulting from the fall in tariff revenues.

122 Customs duties are about to expire

Trump, following a court ruling, imposed a 10 per cent tariff on global goods under section 122 of the Trade Act 1974. This provision, however, allows the tariff to last only 150 days and the current measures will expire on 24 July. The extension would have to come from Congress, but the likelihood of parliamentary support was considered low against the backdrop of the proximity of the medium-term elections and the high cost of living pressure.

The article states that the Trump team has therefore shifted its focus to article 301 of the same law. This provision allows the President of the United States to impose tariffs or other sanctions on countries found to have “unreasonable” or “discriminatory” trade practices. Trump's first term of office was used to impose customs duties on China and recently announced a 25 per cent tariff on some Brazilian imports.

Revenue from customs duties is reversed by increases

After the Supreme Court ruled that the President could not directly impose customs duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the Government would have to refund the importer who had previously paid the relevant tax. This has led to a shift in tariff revenues from fiscal growth to fiscal drag in the short term.

  • Last October, import tax revenues exceeded $31.4 billion.
  • It fell back in March and April to about $22 billion.
  • In June, it turned into a $25.6 billion deficit. Loss

Trump and United States Treasury Secretary Becent both indicated that this revenue would be covered by other legislative mandates.

Two 301 investigations into alternative tools

According to the article, the Trump Government is currently relying mainly on two Article 301 investigations to promote alternatives. One addressed the issue of forced labour, covering 60 countries and covering the vast majority of United States imports; the other targeted the existence of excess capacity in 16 trading partners, including China, the European Union and Japan.

In the forced labour survey, the U.S. Trade Representative, Greer, last month, proposed a new tariff scheme: 10 per cent for 16 countries and 12.5 per cent for another 44 countries, which is roughly the same as, and partly higher than, Article 122, which is due to expire. The programme is still in the process of public consultation and has not yet formally landed.

A number of trade lawyers expect that the White House will try to complete the interface by 24 July to avoid a clear gap after the expiration of the 122nd tariff. As for another survey on overcapacity, analysts expect that it will take another one to two months and that the related higher tax measures may be implemented after the mid-term elections.

Legal stability is stronger, but the risk of litigation remains.

The article argues that, unlike emergency tariffs previously subject to rapid upward or downward adjustments by the President, Article 301 duties are subject to procedures such as consultation and hearings, and that the space for adjustment is still in place but less arbitrary. This means that the policy uncertainty facing enterprises may decrease, but it will not disappear altogether.

At the same time, commentators pointed out that article 301 had been relatively solid in law in the past, but that judicial challenges could still be encountered once again if it was used to disguise the restoration of large-scale global tariffs. The debate focused on whether such investigations dealt with specific trade issues or were used as tools to rebuild the universal tariff system.