This week, the Ether Fever went back to $1940 and then went back to about $1835, but most of the increase had been thrown back. The weakening of market sentiment is linked to the obstruction of the United States encryption market structure bill, the centralization of leverage and the expected changes in macro interest rates.

The bill is blocked.

According to Polit tokens, the United States Senate Democrats are currently not supporting the relevant market structure bill, which means that it is more difficult to get 60 votes to pass. Some Democrat parliamentarians have requested that prior to supporting the bill, a conflict-of-interest restriction relating to the possession of the encrypted assets of Trump be added.

Barron's use of analysts' judgement suggests that the probability of passing the bill this year has fallen below 30 per cent. At the same time, the legislative period before the August recess of the United States Congress has narrowed down the market ' s expectations of policy catalysts.

$1,800 close to liquidation.

CoinGlass data shows that in the last 24 hours the encryption market has been liquidated for over $400 million in leverage. Three days ETH liquidation heat tries to show that there is a more intensive leverage position in the vicinity of 1800 to 1810 dollars, an area that is at the bottom of current prices and that is critical to short-line support.

  • Below, support attention: $1800 to $1810
  • Short-line pressure above: $1845 to $1860
  • More resistance areas: 1950 to 1960 US$

Above, there is a settlement-intensive area near US$ 1845 to 1860, and a larger stress zone is located between US$ 1950 and 1960. If the price is back on US$ 1860, the situation could accelerate towards the 1950s; if it falls, US$ 1800, it could trigger a new round of multiple liquidations.

ETF and US debt return pressure

The U.S. F.S. ETF support for prices is still limited. As of the week of 11 July, such funds had a combined net inflow of $8.442 million, which had ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. Fuda FETH, however, re-emerged on July 13th with an outflow of US$ 1540 million, indicating that the return of funds was unstable.

At the macro level, the latest economic data from the United States have also weakened the market ' s expectations of a radical fall in the Fed. The number of people applying for unemployment assistance for the first time fell to a two-month low of 20.08 million, with a 0.2 per cent increase in retail sales in June and a 0.5 per cent increase in core retail sales. As a result, some economists increased their growth expectations for the second quarter of the United States to a maximum of 2.4 per cent.

As a result, the annual rate of return on national debt rose to 4.596 per cent in the United States and 4.179 per cent in the United States.2 The rise in the rate of return has increased the opportunity cost of holding risk assets such as Etherwood and further limited the re-shock of ETH at the 2000 US$ level.

$1850 is critical for repair.

In the light of current trends, the 1850 to 1875 zone has become a key location for short-term repair at the Taifeng. If prices do not stabilize the region again, the rebound structure may continue to weaken. If $1,800 were to fail, the market's concern about falling back to the lower supporting areas would increase significantly.

According to analysts, continued recent ETF outflows, high rates of return on United States debt, or continued delays in United States-related legislation could weaken the momentum for ETH to return to the 2000 dollar.