The media quoted a memorandum from the analyst Benjamin Cowen stating that, although Bitcoin had re-established its 200-week simple moving mean in a recent rebound, that did not suffice to suggest that the current round of adjustments was over. According to the article, the current situation is more like a “deep observation period” and there is a risk of a new low in the fourth quarter, with prices falling even by $45,000.

The article mentions that Bitcoin fell at a time when it fell in the early summer and then returned to that level in a rebound. According to Cowen, this “break-and-break recovery” movement was not unusual, and a similar situation had occurred in 2022, when the market was not immediately bottomed out and then moved out of the lower position.

200 Weekline does not give an end signal

The article also mentioned that the market had previously compared the current cycle with 2019, but that time frame had now been lengthened and the expected rapid decline had not occurred. According to the memorandum, the current round of adjustments would not necessarily be achieved through a sharp drop, but could also be achieved through longer circuits and repeated indigestion.

This means that price repair per se does not necessarily amount to a release from risk. Even with the short-term rise in bitcoin, the rebound may be only part of the adjustment process in the absence of broader market cooperation.

The chain indicators are still cautious.

According to the article, part of the chain of risk readings has entered historically more accumulative zones, and the ratio of profit to loss to supply also intersected during the fall of the early summer, a situation that has often occurred in the past near the bottom of the phase.

Cowen, however, believes that these signals are not sufficient to confirm that the probe is complete. Several of the observations listed include that the MVRV Z-score rebound did not fall below the zero axis; prices were close to the realized price of about $53,000, but did not really test this level; and the market was weak after the recent rebound.

  • MVRV Z-score has not entered deeper low
  • Price close to price achieved but not tested
  • ETF holds are starting to fall back. Elephant.

The article also mentioned that the ETF holder, which had previously absorbed a large amount of pressure, had begun to weaken, which was considered to be one of the signs of cooling at the demand end.

Macro background still suppresses risk preferences

At the macro level, the memorandum defines 2026 as the mid-term election year in the United States and notes that such years tend to show weakness in the four-year market cycle. Historically, the rhythm common in similar years has been that of weak performance in August and September, after a summer rebound, followed by a low formation cycle in four quarters.

At the same time, it was mentioned that the effect of inflation cooling from weak oil prices in the preceding period was changing, that geo-risks around the Straits of Hormuz were warming again, and that the Federal Reserve no longer maintained a clear easing trend and that real interest rates were still at a high level. The combination of these factors has not yet led to a complete withdrawal of the empty logic.

According to this analysis, if the Bitcoin weekly line could continue to stand around the 50-week average of $8.65 million, the prospect of evaporation would be significantly diminished. Prior to this, the article argued that the market was closer to waiting for confirmation, rather than confirmation of recovery.