The U.S. Encrypted Market Structures Act (CLARITY Act) is again blocked. Polymarket traders reduced their annual pass-through probability to 32 per cent, the lowest level since the market line. Negotiations in the Senate on ethical provisions remain unresolved and constitute a major obstacle to progress on the bill.
Negotiations in the Senate stalled
The Senate is still seeking the support of the Democratic Party. A number of parliamentarians had called for the inclusion of ethical provisions acceptable to both parties, particularly those dealing with conflicts of interest between public officials and digital assets. Senator Ruben Gallego of the Arizona Democratic Party stated that he would not support the bill in the Senate without such a provision.
The market expects a clear cooling.
Polymarket shows that the probability of passing the Act within the year has fallen from 82% on February 19th. As the legislative calendar has tightened since May, traders are increasingly cautious as to whether the bill will reach the presidential table by the end of the year. It was mentioned that the market line was 11 January and that the current probability was significantly lower than at the initial stage.
Industry continues to press for legislation
Industry executives continued to call on Congress to pass the bill as soon as possible at the House hearing. In their view, digital asset activities would be easier to stay in the United States if the regulatory boundaries of the SEC and CFTC were clearer. The representatives of Nova Labs, Bullish, WisdomTree and Coin Center stressed that clear rules were more important than continued reliance on law enforcement.