Deribit data show that there is a large bitcoin options deal in the market this week, and the bet BTC continues to move up until the end of July. The date of expiry of the relevant warehouse fell on 31 July, only two days from the July meeting of the Federal Reserve.

$2.5 billion to target $72,000.

The deal consisted of two parts: the purchase of $20,000 of $70,000 due on 31 July and the sale of $72,000 of the same maturity.

Under Deribit contractual rules, each contract corresponds to 1 bitcoin. The combined nominal value of the 40,000 contracts mentioned above is approximately $2.5 billion.

Such combinations are commonly referred to as price differential strategies and apply to moderate price increases for betards. Dealers reduce the costs of construction by selling a higher performance margin, but also waive additional benefits of over $72,000.

The position is closer to the Fed Conference.

The market's interest in the deal is not only because of its size, but also because of the proximity of the due date to the Fed Conference. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision on July 29th, and the option will be settled in two days.

This means that some large traders are viewing the conference as a potential catalyst and bet bitcoin could approach $72,000 by the end of the month.

CoinDesk, citing Federal Fund futures data, argues that it is now generally expected that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, with a probability of remaining between 3.5 and 3.75 per cent of base interest rates at about 75 to 80 per cent. The rest of the probability is spread between higher and lower interest rates.

Slowing inflation and rebounding oil prices

Recent upturns in interest rates have eased concerns, owing to the cooling of inflation data in June and a marked slowdown in price pressures on both consumers and producers. The report mentions that this change is related to the fall in oil prices in that month, which in turn was related to a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

However, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated again this week, and new strikes have disrupted oil transport in the Straits of Hormuz, pushing WTI and Brent to rebound significantly. As a result, some analysts believe that the improvement in inflation in June is more reflective of the previous environment than necessarily fully representative of the current situation.

Against this background, the large bill of options shows that at least some of the large amounts of funds do not for the time being regard geo-risk as the dominant variable and continue to bet on higher levels than before the end of the month.