In a recent television interview with Bloomberg, the economist Nurier Rubini stated that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and robotic technology could replace a large number of jobs over the next 20 to 25 years and force Governments to reconsider their income distribution systems, including basic income for all.
In his view, as automation covered more industries, it had become difficult to cope with structural changes in the labour market by means of traditional policy instruments such as delayed retirement. In the future, Governments may need to provide some form of income support to citizens at the working age stage and after retirement if more and more people are unable to rely on regular employment for a stable income.
Traditional tools or difficulties in coping with long-term shocks
Rubini is well known for suggesting risks before the 2008 financial crisis. His judgement this time was not focused on short-term unemployment fluctuations, but on a long-term rewriting of the employment structure in AI.
In his description, the problem was not just a loss of jobs, but the fact that machines could take over more and more cognitive and executive jobs. As a result, past reliance on increased retirement age, vocational training or cyclical fiscal incentives to cushion shocks may have had limited effect.
Growth acceleration and distribution of pressure
Rubini didn't think that AI would only produce negative results. He said AI could also significantly increase economic growth.
According to his estimates, the annualized GDP growth rate could rise from about 2 per cent to about 4 per cent by the end of the century, then to 6 per cent in 2040 and to 10 per cent in 2050. But at the same time, he pointed out that the real challenge is how the wealth created by AI will be distributed in society.
OpenAI equity discussion was mentioned.
He mentioned that there were reports that OpenAI had discussed the possibility of the United States Government holding 5 per cent of the company. Along these lines, the financial benefits of AI may be indirectly shared by the public through State-owned shares.
Discussions around basic income for all have been ongoing for many years in the scientific and technological communities and policy circles. The CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altmann, who had supported the concept of secure income in the past, turned to a more cautious attitude. It was reported that the British Government had also considered an income support policy for workers in industries at risk of being hit more by AI.
Rubini stated that his judgement was not a catastrophic prophecy, but rather an optimistic scenario: machines took on more work and the economy maintained a high rate of growth. But the risk of inequality and social instability is likely to rise if Governments are unable to distribute the benefits of AI more widely.