As bitcoin continued to fall in the second quarter, the market began to lower expectations of Coinbase's performance during the season. According to the contract for the forecast market platform Kalshi, there is a general perception among traders that Coinbase's total trade volume in the second quarter may be lower than currently estimated on Wall Street.

Kalshi bets below $160 billion

Kalshi's related contract revolves around whether Coinbase's second-quarter transactions are above different thresholds. The latest pricing shows that traders believe that their turnover is above $160 billion at 41 per cent and above $170 billion at only 25 per cent.

This is a gap with what analysts expect. The FactSet summary data show that the market is estimated at $168.5 billion, which is slightly higher than the central judgement currently reflected by Kalshi.

However, the traders did not bet on a significant slowdown in the volume of the transactions. The contract showed that the probability of trading in two quarters above $150 billion was still 99 per cent.

Or three consecutive quarters down.

If this result materializes, Coinbase transactions will decline in the third consecutive quarter. The market also anticipated that its total trade volume would fall by $200 billion for the first time since the third quarter of 2024.

Coinbase ' s transactional performance has continued to weaken in recent quarters in the context of the decline in bitcoin prices, which has weakened the dynamism of the deal with the related encrypted assets. For a platform that relies on transaction income, turnover changes usually have a direct impact on quarterly performance.

Bitcoin came back to slow down the trade.

As mentioned in the CNBC text, bitcoin experienced a cumulative decline of about 12 per cent in the second quarter. At a time of weak prices, demand for retail and some institutional transactions tends to cool down in parallel, which also makes the market cautious about Coinbase ' s closings during the season.

Coinbase is scheduled to publish the second quarterly financial statements on 30 July, at which time the volume of transactions, the proceeds of transactions and the level of user activity will be the focus of market attention. The final settlement of the contract will be based on information provided by the investment research platform Fiscal.ai.

  • Probability above $160 billion is 41%
  • More than $170 billion is 25% probability
  • Over $150 billion is 99% probability.

Additional information:The CNBC discloses in its original language that it has commercial cooperation with Kalshi, including cooperation with clients and limited equity investments.