Following the renewed warming of the situation in the Middle East, the energy market reacted rapidly. Brent's crude oil broke $90 per barrel, and gold was repositioned on Monday at the 4000 per ounce level. The market focus has shifted from a purely risk-averse demand to an upward shift in oil prices that will re-inflation and influence the Federal Reserve ' s subsequent policy judgement.
Oil price rises $90.
Reports indicate that the United States has struck Iran again in the recent past, that the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense and that the market has begun to reassess the risk of disruption to regional energy supplies. As a result, Brent crude oil prices rose to $90 per barrel.
The rise in oil prices usually leads to transport, manufacturing and consumption, thus raising overall price levels. Although the inflation data for June at one point showed a decrease in pressure, the rebound in energy prices exposed this trend to new changes.
Federal Reserve officials raise interest rates.
At a time of high oil prices, a number of Fed officials have begun to discuss openly the possibility of a further increase in interest rates. Beth Hammack, Chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, stated that the cost of borrowing might still need to be increased further.
It was mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his address to Congress, had stressed that inflation would not be tolerated at the decision-making level over the long term. This statement has driven the market to reorient its expectations of a follow-up policy path.
For gold, this constitutes a direct pressure. The rise in interest rates usually increases the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets such as bonds, cash and so forth, while gold itself does not generate interest earnings and therefore tends to be under pressure when the expected warming is tightened.
The gold goes back up 4000 dollars.
Gold fell about 2.5 per cent last week and briefly collapsed at $4000. This price level was first broken at the end of June, when it reached a high level since November 2025. Monday's gold price was returned to the top of this level, showing that the purchase had not completely receded.
Data from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of the week of July 14 show that the net excess of speculative funds on COMEX gold futures increased to 119,147 contracts. This suggests that, despite short-term adjustments, part of the money is still on the market.
Avoidance buys together with high interest rate expectations
Gold is not currently being driven in a single direction. Geographical conflicts usually raise the need for risk avoidance, but they also push up oil prices and reinforce inflation and currency tightening expectations.
This means that gold, on the one hand, benefits from military conflict and energy supply risks, and, on the other hand, is expected to be suppressed by higher interest rates. The recent synchronization of silver also reflects a lack of consistent upward trends in precious metals as a whole.
Next, the ability of the gold to hold $400,000 depends primarily on two factors: whether the price of crude oil continues to rise, and whether the Federal Reserve releases a clearer signal of tightening. If the situation in the Middle East escalates further, or if there are signs of a slowdown in economic growth, the risk buyout may still grow again.