Bitcoin has recently recovered to the vicinity of US$ 64,800, and the short-line movement has improved, but the chain data still indicate that the longer-term market structure has not been synchronized. According to CriptoQuant Analyst CriptoOnchain, the market is in a transition phase, with short-line bias and medium- and long-term signs of weakness.
Distinction of seven indicators
The analyst ' s model tracks seven indicators, of which 4 have a pre-project bias, leading to a slight improvement in the overall short-line mood. However, with the inclusion of the structural indicator “achieved prices”, the model judgement would shift to a vacuum.
He indicated that this change would significantly lower the overall market judgement. The central reason is not whether prices rebound, but rather the average holding costs of different currency-holders, which have not yet supported a more robust up-to-date round.
Perpetrators of 1 to 3 months are significantly lower
The most obvious imbalances at present occur between two categories of investors: The first is the holder who bought it between 1 and 3 months ago, and the other is the holder who held it between 6 and 12 months.
According to the analyst ' s data, the average purchase cost gap between these two groups has remained at about -26.3 per cent since January this year. This means that the newer buyers still hold bitcoin at a cost significantly lower than the medium-term holders.
In his view, this is not an ideal repair signal. Often, when the market enters a clearer upswing phase, the cost of holding new entry funds increases and contributes to overall structural improvements. However, that change has not yet taken place.
This state of affairs may also occur at the distribution stage, where earlier holders gradually sell when market demand picks up, while new buyers take hold, but market ownership does not really complete the switch.
The structure model is more focused on evacuation control.
Historical retrospects cited in the article show that the kinetic model tends to yield higher returns during the upswing phase, but the structural model places greater emphasis on control retreats.
According to CryptoOnchain, during the fall in the market, the largest withdrawal of the structural model was about 40 per cent, significantly below the level of about 76 per cent of the simple holding strategy. The model recorded losses of about 23 to 29 per cent in the return range in 2025, while the direct holding of bitcoin during the same period recorded losses of about 34.6 per cent.
This also suggests that structural signals may be slow to react in the early stages of a rebound, but often reflect a real decrease in risk when markets are weak.
Whether or not the rebound continues will depend on the change in holding costs
CryptoOnchain argues that the present is more of an intermediate stage in the process of repair than a clear shift to a unilateral rise or fall.
The recovery in bitcoin itself sends some positive signals, but if the average holding cost of buyers in the recent past continues to be lower than that of longer-term holders, the emptiness of structural judgement may continue and then repressurize short-line kinetic signals.
For this round to gain greater recognition, the market needs not only to sustain its current recovery, but also to have higher stages, while allowing for a more favourable change in the price relations achieved by the major currency holders.