In the United States, the current bitcoin ETF has recorded a net inflow of funds for almost two weeks, but external sources are of the view that, if time is extended, this round-up will not be sufficient to reverse the ongoing withdrawal.

Two weeks of return is only a small part of the previous period.

As of the week of 17 July, 13 United States real bitcoin ETFs alone combined net inflows of $75.7 million. This followed a one-week net inflow of $197.4 million and a two-week combined net inflow of $273.1 million. This was also the first time since the beginning of May that a net inflow of such products had been achieved for two consecutive weeks.

However, although the funding level has improved, the replenishment is still limited. Between mid-May and early July, United States spot bitcoin ETF experienced net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, cumulatively exceeding $8.2 billion. In June 2026 alone, a single-month outflow of about $4.5 billion created the worst single-month performance of the product since it was listed in January 2024.

In this caliber, the return of $273.1 million for the last two weeks covers only about 3.3 per cent of the total outflows previously made. At present, the total net assets of the only available bitcoin ETF are estimated at $77.7 billion, below the level of $106 billion prior to the start of large-scale outflows in mid-May.

Gold ETF is considered reference

The outsider cited the view of Eric Balchunas, Senior Analyst of the Bloomberg Industry Research, that observing the long history of Bitcoin ETF, Gold ETF, especially the first gold ETF GLD in the United States might be a closer reference.

His central argument was that neither the bitcoin nor the gold produced cash flows, nor fixed returns on dividends or similar bonds, and that prices were more vulnerable to changes in market sentiment. As a result, such assets tend to experience large fluctuations during the periods of increase and withdrawal.

Balchunas also mentioned that in October of last year, Beled's Bitcoin ETF IBIT broke $100 billion in asset size, and the point of time was roughly the same as the bitcoin's 126,000-dollar historical height. Since then, bitcoin prices have fallen around about $64,000, with the higher point falling by about half.

Agencies disagree on follow-up trends

Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETF may repeat the path that Gold ETF has been going through, i.e., a rapid rise, then a deeper retreat, then a rehabilitation phase, during which investor patience will be tested.

He also noted that IBIT had sold close to 100,000 BTCs in recent months in response to redemption and that the number of bitcoins currently managed was slightly higher than 73.33 million.

However, there is not a consistent view of institutions. Citicorp reduced the target price of bitcoin for the next 12 months from $1.12 million to $82,000 on 1 July, while reducing the projected net ETF inflows for the coming year from $10 billion to zero. The reasons given by Citigroup include weak financial flows, stagnation in encryption legislation in the United States and a cooling of institutional demand.

Overall, short-term repairs to the United States-based bitcoin ETF funding portfolio have occurred, but the current return flows are still small in scale compared to the large-scale outflows of previous weeks, and whether the market enters a more stable recovery phase will depend on the continued return of subsequent funds.